Joe’s Weather Blog: Another snow comes our way (SAT-11/10)

Well at least I sneaked in one day of no blogging…because the data last night and today shows another potential snowmaker coming this way later tomorrow into Monday morning. The set-up is somewhat different this time through and that brings some new challenges to figuring out how much will fall tomorrow evening and tomorrow night. There could be a tendency for a more southern trend as well as the situation unfolds tomorrow…we’re sort of on the northern fringe of this situation but it will need watching and for those who live south of the Metro…towards and south of US-50 and from Ottawa-Paola eastwards…you may be more in line for something a bit more noteworthy.



Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds and NOT as cold with lows in the 25-28° range

Sunday: Increasing clouds with lowering and thickening clouds. We should remain dry for most of the day though. Highs, with the clouds may struggle to only 40-45°

Sunday night: We should see a brief wintry mix>snow situation develop. Accumulations in the KC area will likely be in the dusting to 2″ range into Monday early morning. See the discussion for the impacts with the warm roads initially

Monday: Mostly cloudy and colder with highs only around 30° or so



Discussion:

Let’s start out with the sub-headline of the blog…the cold weather. We set a low temperature record yesterday evening and up until 12AM it dropped to 13°. The previous record was 22° so we shattered the record for 11/9 by 9°. Impressive.

Then this morning we bottomed out at 9°…breaking the previous record by 10°. The amount of “breakage” of these two records, back to back no less, is what is fascinating to me. It’s also the 2nd time we’ve down back to back records in the last month. On 10/15-16 we broke the daily cold records…and here we did it again…less than a month later…fascinating!

No more records for low temperatures are likely. Tuesday morning will be the bottom of this cold weather pattern…after that we start to sort of rejigger the jet stream and we start to come out of this cold weather pattern. The record on Tuesday is 3° set in 1896…it’s safe.

Another record to keep an eye on would be the snowfall record for tomorrow (11/11). That is attainable depending on how things play out tomorrow night…

That’s not much and snow fall records, typically during the 1st 2/3rds of fall are not overly high at all.

Since 10/1 through yesterday…this is the 12th coldest we’ve been.

No doubt into the heart of the ext cold blast…Monday and Tuesday…we go up a few more lines on that chart above.

So there’s all that!

Now onto the next snow maker…or potential snow maker.

A surface low pressure area will be developing across eastern Colorado this afternoon and tomorrow will be dropping down into far western Texas. Then on Monday it will sort of reorganize in eastern TX and move into the SE part of the country on Tuesday.

That isn’t exactly a favorable big snow set up for us. BUT there is more to the atmosphere that what happens on the ground. Aloft another wave is in the process of digging into the Northern Rockies…you can sort of see it by the amount of cloud over over Montana today.

That wave will drop into the SE part of UT and far western CO tomorrow…and then start splitting up and shearing out into the Plains and another chuck dropping into TX. It’s really not the greatest set-up aloft either BUT there will be some small little pieces of energy coming through the Plains from this and they should be enough to set of precipitation later tomorrow to our south and towards the west of KC.

Tracking those small and fast moving impulses will be something that almost has to be nowcasted later tomorrow and tomorrow evening…that will be done mostly with radar.

Colder air will again start moving this way as this all starts to occur. We initially will have some dry air issues below about 6000-10,000 feet to overcome and get saturated but in time that could happen later in the afternoon and especially towards the evening.

The atmosphere, while above freezing at the surface for most of the day and into the early evening (important for snow accumulations) will overall support snow production and maintenance for the vast majority of whatever happens. Whatever falls before 6PM (if anything) may be mixed with some rain drops or ice pellets but the overwhelming majority should be snow again for this.

There will be differences between tomorrow and Thursday evening though, at least for awhile. Road temperatures may actually be warmer…so what falls will melt again…there is treatment leftover on the roads…that too will help. Once again though we’ll need to watch what happens later tomorrow night into Monday AM for potential freezing…and again perhaps moreso on the bridges and overpasses than on the regular roads. Another difference though is what happens on Monday AM…we were around 28-30° this past FRI AM after the snow…on MON AM we may be about 3-5 degrees colder…that may have more implications on the main roads IF they don’t dry out in time. So let’s file that one for potential on Monday AM.

In terms of amounts…tricky. The heaviest precip may actually be towards the southside once again and south of the Metro. There is 1-3″+ potential I think a few countries south of KC…while for KC my initial thoughts would be a dusting to 2″. I might lean towards the lower side of that range right now BUT it’s a very slight lean at this point.

One reason why this isn’t so cut and dry is that we’re dealing with table scraps of a wave that is splitting and zipping through the region. There really isn’t any strong wave coming in. There are some favorable indicators looking at the jet stream above us, in terms of our positioning (remember that was a clue for me the other day that there was upside to what happened) so that’s why I don’t want to lean too heavily right now towards the dusting scenario, especially on the grass and exposed surfaces.

IF I see indications of something a bit more robust tomorrow…some sort of identifiable wave or wave that look to generate more upward motion in the atmosphere that can set up some beefier snow areas…we’ll deal with that in tomorrow’s blog.

I wanted to touch on the situation out in CA..from a weather standpoint especially. I think, since this area doesn’t experience stuff like that…we don’t fully understand how and why these things can spread so fast…the fire that affected and is still affecting the Malibu area spread at the rate of 20 miles in one day yesterday. It’s being fanned by tinder dry conditions and winds that get to 60 MPH. The mountainous and hilly terrain out there allows these winds to get funneled and when something like air…or water gets funneled…the speed increases. Then when a fire starts…either by arson or because of downed power lines (or other reasons) things develop fast and spread faster. You can only treat those fires so much in that type of terrain. They’re too big for the firefighters and spread too quickly.

I mean come on…how can you get this knocked down quickly…look at the scope of it. There are heroic firefighters doing their darndest though to try to contain this thing…and protect life and property.

The fire in the Malibu area is called the Woolsey fire. The one farther north…the Camp Fire is also impressive and not in a good way. At least count close to 7000 structures have burned making this the most destructive fire in CA history.

There are many reasons why these fires are so bad…including the fact that we keep building structures (and obviously some crazy expensive ones) in areas that are subject to these types of fires. The weather conditions out there have also made things worse in many ways…by setting up the scenarios in the 1st place.

This is a fascinating thread about the multi-year set-up to these events.

The Camp Fire has surpassed 100,000 acres…that’s about 156 sq miles…

IF you add up the square mileage in Olathe, Overland Park. Prairie Village and Leawood…you come up about 155 sq miles. My goodness.

In many ways CA is perfect for this because when they get a ton of rain…things grow like crazy…then when conditions turn dry and parched…everything can burns.

A tragic scenario out there will continue without much hope for any long term relief for weeks without big storms to help the cause out there.

OK that’s it for today…I’ll leave you with this amazing picture from the @PeopleOfCowtown…always out taking great pictures…and fitting for Veterans Day on Sunday too. It’s of the WW1 Memorial lit up with Poppy flowers…

Joe

 

 

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