Joe’s Weather Blog: Another big change on Saturday including some snow (FRI-11/16)
Happy Friday! Today’s weather will actually be rather pleasant with milder temperatures chewing away at the snow that’s still out there in the shade. It can be very difficult to melt that shaded snow…the sun angle today is similar to late January so unless the winds are blowing strongly or the sun is shining on it…snow, even this early in the season can stick around.
I’ve been watching with interest the big storm in the northeast part of the country. There were some indicators that it was going to be more significant that what some forecasts were saying and with the timing being the evening rush hour…it was a chaotic mess in the northeast. I thought the headline in the NY Daily News was a good one!
Today: Mostly sunny and milder with highs well into the 50s
Tonight: Fair skies and seasonable with lows in the 30s
Tomorrow: The colder air rushes in during the morning…so odds are the temperatures will be steady to falling during the day. We may warm up through the 30s in the morning but then drop in the afternoon with increasing winds and clouds
Saturday night: Some snow is likely in the region with cold weather. Lows in the 20s
Sunday: Morning snow moves away. Odds favor a dusting to 2″…perhaps more of an emphasis on the lower end of this but we’ve seen over achieving systems and I want to pay attention to this aspect for Sunday morning. Then some clearing and chilly with highs only in the 30s
Let’s start with the snow on the ground nationwide today…not bad at all for mid November.
Almost 25% of the country has snow cover…
Compared to last year…only 9%
and the year before…only 1% (!)
Interestingly back in 2014 there was more snowcover than this year…almost 37%
There is always a big focus on the danger of tornadoes…unfortunately I think winter weather…including snow and ice is sort of shoved to the bottom of concerns in some weird way when it comes to situational awareness. Think about it…tornadoes affect relatively tiny areas of real estate…whereas winter storms…with snow and ice affects huge areas by comparison.
This year 8 people have died in tornado related deaths. Thankfully while any death is tragic…this years lack of activity has kept the death toll lower than average.
As far as the winter weather goes in our next of the woods..this really won’t be an identifiable storm that can be tracked. This is more associated with some jet stream dynamics and some mid level influences. The mid level influence from this…roughly from about 5000 feet to about 12,000 feet is a bit more of a complicated explainer. Basically in a nutshell the situation tomorrow night has something involved called frontogenesis.
It’s Weather 301 time!
Frontogenesis, in the simplest way occurs when a front intensifies. When warm air converges into colder air. This horizontal convergence means uplift to the air…still with me?
Typically we see these types of occurrences, especially in the winter months occur above the surface…and sometimes IF they intensify more than you think…you get some stronger bands of precipitation develop. That would be the situation for later tomorrow into Sunday morning. Add in some jet stream dynamics and we should at least have some snow out there…and with temperatures near 32° and assuming we have something that happens at night…it should stick.
The issue is how strong and “fruitful” will these bands be and where will the better bands set up? That is more of a nowcasting situation and will be dealt with tomorrow evening.
Again a dusting to 2″ is possible, especially from the Metro northwards. Data today indicated the 36 highway corridor might be most favored for that 1-2″ swath…but obviously any slight shift south (very possible in these situations)…then the Metro comes into play.
There will be a return to milder weather next week…that should last until at least next Friday.
Then you see what’s happening in CA…with more than 60 dead from the Camp Fire alone…a number that will increase over the next few weeks as close to 600 are missing.
Yesterday because of all the smoke in the air…northern CA had the worse air quality in the country.
Our feature photo comes from Kathy Vantrump Lake out towards Norbourne, MO from Monday