Joe’s Weather Blog: Some snow here…more north…and a temperature reversal (SAT-11/17)

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Good afternoon…a cold front is slowly working through the region this afternoon. North side is chillier than the south side as of this writing but things will be equaling out on the colder note later this afternoon. Right now there isn’t a lot of weather (aside from a cloud increase) associated with this. The winds will be increasing during the afternoon…and the interesting temperature contrast from north to south will eventually all turn cold. I’m still focused on the snow potential across northern MO especially…accumulations are likely up there. For the Metro…accumulations of anything more than a dusting to 1/2″ or so may be tough at this point…but that doesn’t mean that some slick roads aren’t possible tomorrow AM…especially north of I-70 if there is a coating or something to contend with.



Forecast:

Tonight: Continued falling temperatures with blustery winds creating wind chills in the teens. Lows tonight in the 20s. Some snow is possible in the wee hours of Sunday morning. Some bands of snow are more likely towards northern MO where 1-3″+ are possible in some areas…roads will be slick up there. Be alert as well to some freezing mist/drizzle for awhile overnight tonight.

Sunday: Any snow flurries or patches of light snow in KC quickly end then variable clouds and chilly with highs in the 30s

Monday: Mostly sunny and cool with highs well into the 40s



Discussion:

Let’s talk snow…

Overall a weak system with perhaps a bit more punch into northern MO…here is the radar to get an idea what’s going on out there now…

It’s snowing this afternoon across northern MO and southern IA…some decent snows up there too…especially near the border.

Here is the 1PM surface map showing the colder air pressing southwards…and the clouds are increasing rapidly south of the I-70 corridor with the push of the colder air. It did warm into the 50s south of KC today. Temperatures in RED

Here is the HRRR model with it’s idea…

Another dump of cold air is moving into the region as I type this…and once again tomorrow will be a colder day with some afternoon sunshine…

Monday and Tuesday are chilly…and then we moderate into the holiday.

 

This cold November keeps grinding along…as I illustrated to you yesterday…the 2nd coldest start to November in KC weather history going back some 130+ years.

The only year that beats us is 1976.

So let’s look at some additional data for the winters that followed these cold starts to November…

Let’s start with 1976…and I’m expanding the range of “winter” to go from 12/1-3/31…I wanted to get March in this data set.

This 4 month period was the 20th coldest in KC weather history.

Next on the list is 2000

This winter and all of March was tied for the 6th coldest!

Now let’s look at 1992 and extend that to the DEC 92-MAR 93 time frame

This time frame was a warm winter+ for us…4th warmest!

Next up is the winter+ in 1985-6

This 4 month period was the 50th coldest…so in the top half of colder winters.

Finally the winter of 1996-97…

For us it turned into the 34th coldest winter…it was a cold DEC>JAN then a somewhat average FEB…followed by a warmer March.

From the data above…as we try and figure out the winter…it seems to me that a rather large swath of the country has the potential of being below average in that 4 month time span…especially the eastern half (yes that includes us). For parts of the country…perhaps significantly so as well.

Model data that takes a look at seasonal forecasting…well…is never very accurate. For some silly reason (imo) we waste computer resources running long range models 4 times per DAY! These models go out forĀ  a years time…and they’re rarely right…it’s almost as if then can’t predict colder weather in the US…its rare for me to see these models crank out below average temperatures. I won’t even tell you how poorly this one model performed for this MONTH…when it cranked out it’s forecast a few days before the end of the LAST month.

So with that said…hey maybe it can pull a rabbit out of …we you know. Caveat…this model is for DEC-FEB…

There is sort of a winter 1985-86 vibe in that look from above.

I don’t have a great way of displaying the EURO monthly data in seasonal form…but I will say that it’s definitely colder and probably more realistic.

Anyway…food for thought. Another item for you is Michelle’s Winter Weather Forecast airing on Sunday night during FOX 4 News at either 9 or 10PM.

Neat shot from the Elms Hotel up in Excelsior Springs…via Dianna Cole

Joe

 

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