Joe’s Weather Blog: Tracking the next storm(s) (THU-11/29)

Good afternoon…I took a couple of days off to kind of get myself back together after the craziness of the past weekend…I’m still so impressed by the power of the blizzard this past Sunday…and the rapidity of the changes that happened. Now we’re focusing on another storm…maybe two that will impact the area through the early part of next week. The difference between the storm coming later Friday night and Saturday and the one from last weekend is mainly the position and storm track of where the core of the storm will be. More on that in the discussion part of the blog.



Forecast:

Tonight: Partly cloudy followed by increasing clouds. Some fog is possible overnight as well…especially in the snow pack areas. Lows in the upper 20s

Friday: Generally cloudy and cool with highs near 40°. Temperatures may start warming up later in the day or Friday night as the next storm comes this way. It’s possible, depending on the track of the storm that we could pop into the 50s. Some PM mist or drizzle is possible but the better rains should hold off till the evening.

Saturday: Highest rain chance is before lunch…and it may well be mild to start the day…some could easily be in the 50s. Then cooler air circulates back in the colder air coming southwards…so temperatures may fall during the afternoon again.

Sunday: Some flurries or light snow is possible in the colder air. At this point accumulations aren’t likely but will need to be watched just in case. Highs only in the 30s



Discussion:

It will be interesting to see how the next 2 days go in determining how the month of November will end up. Through yesterday this November is #1 in terms of coldness. We’re running 8.5° below average for the month. Today will be a closer to average day…as friday may be by the time the night is done (maybe even above average).

2/10’s of a degree between us and 1976. It’s going to be close!

For the month overall…look at where the bulls-eye is centered for coldness…right there towards Clinton and Sedalia. That doesn’t happen all that often.

So when was the last time it was so cold across so much US real estate in November…well memories are short but it was back in 2014.

Wow…

and yet when 2014 is reviewed…we had little/no snow that month.

So the cold air back then is even more impressive to me I think. November of 2014 was more than 6° below average.

Now onto our next storm…it’s already out there in  the western part of the country.

Another nice storm for CA…heavy mountain snows too. Mammoth Mtn, CA is in all it’s glory right now.

That storm will be moving into the Plains…

Let’s go up to about 18,000 feet and look at the storm…you can see it by the pronounced “U” or dip in the flow pattern up there.

Unlike the storm on Sunday that passed south of KC…this one is likely to go to the northwest and north of KC…the surface low…beneath it is forecast to come nearby…

12Z is 6AM…18Z is Noon…00Z is 6PM and 06Z is 12AM

 

As a result we will try to go into the warm sector…and IF we don’t parts of MO will, especially later Friday night. Note the warmth down towards the south now…

The temperatures in the above map are in RED…60s and 70s aren’t that far away. IF the surface low passes towards the northwest of KC…we’ll spike into the 50s locally and briefly on Saturday morning…then when the low passes or even stalls briefly in northern MO on Saturday morning…cool/colder will come in behind the storm dropping temperatures once again in the afternoon/evening. So a weird day Saturday. There could even be some thunderstorms (rain this time ;) ) sometime later Friday night and then some sort of wintry mix later Saturday afternoon

Then on Sunday the air will be chilly and we’re going to have some leftover moisture around so there could be some non-accumulating snowflakes around as well.

Monday will be the day we watch storm number 2 come out. This is right now up in the Gulf of Alaska. It will race towards the WA/OR coast on Saturday morning then come (and probably get all stretched out) into the southern Plains/northern TX Panhandle area on Monday morning. IF it does get all sheared out…it’s tough to see how we’re going to get anything all that substantial from it BUT if it is more of a functional disturbance with a better “look” to it…we’ll need to watch out for at least some snow to move into the region.

Regardless the air will be getting colder and colder next week…at least into Wednesday mostly. There might be a brief warm-up later in the week before another drop of cold air comes into the area.

I do want to end the blog with some hopeful news…we all know this has been quite the stretch of nasty cold weather…and while temperatures in DEC are averaging in the 30s for highs…I’m seeing signs of at least some moderation moving towards the region. It may wait till the 10th or so…but I think something is coming and that something may be a stretch of at least several days…maybe more of some milder weather. It’s about time I hope.

Our feature photo comes from Heather Brown…showing the dusting to 3 FEET of snow in about 20 feet of real estate from the other afternoon!

Joe

 

 

 

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