Joe’s Weather Blog: This will not be a great week (SAT-12/1)

Good afternoon…it’s tough to get too motivated about the upcoming weather in the KC region. The weather has already peaked for temperatures today in the lower 50s…colder air is wrapping into the region as I type this blog…and I’m not sure when we’re going to see the 50s again into next weekend at least. Clouds are also going to be very prevalent in our skies.

Meanwhile as we close the books on November…we’re saying goodbye to the coldest November in KC weather history. That is remarkable…whenever you’re the coldest or warmest in a 130+ year history…that’s something that doesn’t come along all that often. See yesterday’s blog for some additional details.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy with some rain showers and perhaps some overnight snow showers too. No accumulations are expected with lows dropping into the 30s. Some snow is more likely towards the NW part of MO…there may be some near 2″ totals towards far NW MO and northern MO near the IA border

Sunday: Cloudy with occasional snow showers…some areas may see some dustings of snow but temperatures will be in the mid 30s so no accumulations of significance are expected.

Monday: Clouds with periods of flurries/snow showers possible and highs in the 20s.



  • Discussion:

Let’s wrap up the month that was…

An even 8° below average…and we weren’t alone…

These are the rankings of how November of 2018 stood compared to years past…where you see the 1’s that’s the coldest November in record history…and it goes down from there. Lots of pink colors above for the top 5 coldest Novembers.

As the weather goes though there is always a ying to the yang. Let’s go up to Alaska…notice many areas are in the top 10 of warmest Novembers in AK weather history.

It’s been a fascinating month…oh and it was the 2nd snowiest month in KC weather history too!

We totaled over 37″ in 1923-24.

Today there is a powerful storm spinning through the region.

On the colder side of the storm…it’s snow and it’s still coming down. Here are some snow reports of over 3″

More is expected as well…

It’s quite the storm…

This thing will slowly pull into northern MO tonight>Sunday…

and as colder air starts to farther wrap into the storms western side…it may be able to wrap around some areas of snow…the best chance of sticking snow will be across NW MO…

This storm will also wrap in colder air into the region and that colder air is going to be with us for most of the week. There is nothing good to see in the next chart as we look at the next 10 days from the EURO model…

and the GFS model…

Wednesday will be OK…but still below average.

There may be another storm to watch for next Saturday as well…it needs to come farther north for me to get more excited but since it’s a week away…it’s worth paying attention to the risk next week as we get closer.

See the comparison between the GFS vs the EURO below…slide the bar right for the GFS and the left for the EURO. There are differences in the wave in both timing and the strength (notice how the “U” is more pronounced in the GFS compared to the “flatter” EURO.

This is a week away…so don’t put much into either solution at this point…because it’ll change 10-20+ more times before something close to better reality shapes up.

Our feature photo comes from Gary Duggan

Joe

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