Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold December start…and our next snow? (SUN-12/2)

If nothing else…so far these last couple of months have not been all that boring around these parts…it seems the area is being affected by storm after storm…front after front…and the weather has been anything but quiet. There are the typical spells of quiet weather but it’s been cold and that’s not going to change this week or next weekend.



  • Forecast

Tonight: Cloudy skies with some patches of light snow possible overnight. It’s worth paying attention too in case there are some dustings out there or if there is some melting then freezing on the roads, especially bridges and overpasses. Lows in the mid 20s. So it will be colder tomorrow morning

Monday: Cloudy with a few snow flakes possible at any time. Cold again with highs in the upper 20s to near 30°

Tuesday: Cloudy and cold with highs in the 30° range

Wednesday: Should be a bit better with highs closer to 40° assuming we see sunshine



  • Discussion

So there were a few things I needed to get into yesterday that I forgot to mention.

The end of meteorological fall was on 11/30. This 3 month period from 9/1-11/30 is a more simple stats way to keep data more coherent. As we know the start of fall and winter (and spring and summer) often have different dates from year to hear. Those are the astronomical seasons…weather folks like to use meteorological seasons for data purposes.

So how did this “fall” go…well shockingly it was chilly.

7th rated for cold (led by the coldest November in KC weather history going back 130 years or so)

From a precipitation standpoint…it was also heavily on the wetter side too.

and finally from a snow standpoint..you might have thought it was the snowiest on record…but nope it wasn’t.

So cold…wet and snowy.

Meanwhile the end of November marked the end of the 2018 hurricane season.

Another memorable one…especially Hurricane Michael that devastated the SE part of the country from FL to GA and elsewhere.

Here is a 9 minute video showing all the storms!

Yesterday also marked a pretty nasty tornado outbreak…in Illinois. It’s a reminder that tornadoes and severe weather can occur at anytime of the year. This date in particular had the 9th most tornado reports…21 overall. There was another one in OK I think. Some of those reports will be filtered out as repeat reports…but the tornadoes were just as bad yesterday as they can be in the spring season. Taylorville, IL was particularly hard hit.

Onto our weather…

You can still see the same storm spinning around…

Aloft it’s a bit upper level storm…that is essentially “cutoff” from the flow…both to it’s north and south. Here is a look at the flow around 18,000 feet up. That circle in NE MO and the IL area is the storm. To the north the bigger circle towards the upper Midwest is an upper level high…so it’s blocked to the north.

and you can see the fast flow underneath the storm in the southern US…one of those days where planes flying across the southern tier from west to east are getting from point A to B a lot quicker…if we go even farther up in the atmosphere this morning the winds are cranking away at 125-150+ mph up there. Of course planes heading from east to west across the southern tier aren’t as lucky.

At the surface…note where the surface low is as well a bit farther east towards the Great Lakes region.

Yesterday the 2…the storm aloft and at the surface were almost on top of each other. We call that “stacked” in the weather world. Usually slow moving systems occur when that happens.

While the surface storm is somewhat pulling away…the residual moisture it’s leaving behind is going to be an issue for the next few days.

One of my favorite “quick look” at model depictions is a “meteogram”. This depiction allows me to quick and easy look at the moisture profile of the atmosphere. Note all the green (the NAM model depicted) in the top of the following chart.

This shows the saturation of the atmosphere…usually clouds…and it’s extensive from 12Z today (6AM) to 00Z Wednesday on the far right. can you see this? Note how the green starts to thin out towards Wednesday at 12Z (6AM). Taht tells me that the clodus should hopefully thin out on WED…you can also get an idea of the thickness of the moisture (green) by looking at the far right side and seeing the different altitudes of the moisture.

Like I said…quick and dirty to look at!

Another system/front comes through Thursday morning. There may be a fast attempt at moisture return above the surface later Wednesday into Thursday AM ahead of the front…I can’t rule out some rain or snow showers somewhere out there but this front will again usher in another cold shot of air into next weekend.

There continues to be a storm shown on the model data somewhere in the deep south next Saturday. At this point it still may be too far south to do much for us..but let’s not discount a somewhat farther north solution. It isn’t favored but it’s still 6 days out. Also another significant storm is possible in the Plains on the 12th-13th. We will warm up (really not that warm) though ahead of that feature…so let’s see IF there is cold air around to work with…again that is really out there though.

Our feature photo comes from Tami Camlin in Riverside, MO…nice sunset!

Joe

 

 

 

 

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