Stay weather aware Thursday

Joe’s Weather Blog: All sorts of potential (good and bad) (MON-12/10)

Good Monday to you…another frosty start out there this morning as temperatures this morning caved once again into the middle teens in the region. Skies are sunny and will remain so for the rest of the day. Temperatures will be closer to average and with light winds…not too bad today, at least in the afternoon. The forecast has some good things…and some more interesting things ahead The day of concern is mostly on Thursday…obviously because of some “little” football game that may mean home field advantage through the Playoffs. That forecast will be a changeable one though.

  • Forecast:

Today: Sunny and seasonable with highs around 40°

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows in the 20s

Tuesday: Windy and milder! Highs should surge into the 50s but it will “feel” colder with the 20-30 MPH winds likely in the area. Some clouds are expected as well.

Wednesday: There may be a few sprinkles around but overall not too bad. Not as warm though with highs in the 40s

  • Discussion:

I went through the data last night…since October 1st we’ve had 18 days with temperatures above average (high+low divided by 2)…47 days with temperatures below average…and 5 days with temperatures average. Today will be another below average day because of the cold start. Since October 1st…this is the 4th coldest 10/1-12/9 in KC weather history.

Oh and December isn’t exactly getting off to the greatest start…through yesterday’s date we’re more than 4° below average.

It’s in the Top 30 of cold December starts in KC…there have been a few colder starts…this century too!

The country as a whole is overall cool to cold.

and closer to home…

The color scale above…isn’t the greatest…but basically those greens and blues represent colder than average temperatures through the 1st 9 days of the month.

Temperatures will rebound Tuesday for a day at least. There is still potential that I may be underestimating the strength of warm-up on Tuesday as well. There is going to be a lot of wind out there…up at around 3,000 feet the winds are going to be over 40 MPH..closer to 45 MPH or even higher. We should see winds gusting to 25-35 MPH here at the surface. Temperatures up at that level will be well into the 40s to near 50°…soooo IF we get the gustier winds on the ground..and it’s that warm up there…we should see even warmer temperatures at the surface. What can hold us back…1) snow on the ground…nope. 2) clouds…yup. That is the trick because we should see a cloud deck of varying thickness from about 18,000 feet upwards. IF the clouds are too think..that can affect the temperatures…IF the clouds are thin enough and more sunshine bleeds through…we could be WELL into the 50s to almost 60°. I won’t be surprised in the least IF that happens. IF I’m going to bust my temperature forecast tomorrow…which is 53° (right now)…it will be on the low side I think.

A fast moving and likely non-impactfull storm will slide to the north of the area on Wednesday. Clouds may be an issue though with this and that will lower the temperatures in addition to a briefly cooler air mass sliding our way.

Then there is the Thursday situation. Muddled.

Muddled for many reasons…one is because the energy for this in the atmosphere is still 1000s of miles away..out towards the Aleutian Islands. Look below…see that fast moving area of clouds near and south of Alaska?

(via Rutgers)

That is the wave of energy that will come into the British Columbia later Tuesday…then a piece will break off on the southern side of the developing trof (U-shaped dip in the flow aloft)…and head towards Salt Lake City later Wednesday.

From there it may dive wayyy into TX…or perhaps not as far south. The EURO’s overnight run took it way south again…

The GFS run has it farther north…and it may not look like a lot of distance but it’s several hundred miles and that makes a LOT of difference.

My initial thought is the EURO may be too far south with this…and that the GFS may be somewhat better. The EURO ensembles have a track a bit more close to the GFS model…and that bolsters my thoughts a bit.

The thing is IF the GFS is somewhat more correct in this..the rain chance on Thursday may be increasing…and that’s why I didn’t want to jump on a solution yesterday and why I’m keeping the chance of precip in the forecast still for Thursday and potentially into Thursday evening for the football game.

It will be trending cooler as well on Thursday. Could be one of those days where it’s tough to warm up from the morning lows. Showers and some light rain is right now possible and during this time of the the year especially that is a tough nut to warm up from.

Now about the snow risk…and that’s NOT out of the question for the evening.

There still needs to be adjustments to the storm track for this to play out…but the atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow aloft at least later in the day. NOW IF (still a biggie) we have moisture lingering around later in the day Thursday…it’s not out of the question we could see some snow on the tail end of this.

My overall feeling though is that we’re still precariously on the NW side of this system…and it’s NOT a slam dunk that KC gets anything more than about 1/10″ of moisture from this. The newest NAM model also has the upper low…more or less similar to the EURO farther south scenario…as a result it’s cranking out this look for the total moisture through the end of the day Thursday.

Meanwhile last nights GFS has a “somewhat” different idea…

That looks wayyy to aggressive to me.

Beyond this storm…I wonder about the next snow chance. I’ve written last week about the lack of any true cold air from Canada getting involved in the flow into the Plains and the data today continues to confirm that..this means we’ve got room to warm up in between the active weather pattern that we’re somewhat into right now. With each storm passing through…there is no real sustained cold air tap for the storm to work with…so we end up going back into the milder air again not long after whatever storm moves away. I think Saturday has the potential to be back into the 50s.

There are some decent signs of colder air coming down from Canada heading into Christmas week…perhaps the weekend before Christmas. It could be a more favorable Christmas week set-up for snow with the right Pacific type storm set-up…we’ll see.

Our feature photo comes from Rafael Ramirez out towards Basehor, KS taken back in late November.


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