Joe’s Weather Blog: More mild for December days…then changes (MON-12/24)

Wanted to take a few days off from the blog and let the Friday blog sort of simmer for a bit with you. Today though it’s back to blogging and there is quite a bit to talk about. Merry Christmas!



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and mild by late December standards…highs in the upper 40s to near 50°

Tonight: Some light rain showers likely with perhaps a few mixed in snow flakes, especially northeast of KC Metro. Lows in the 30s. No accumulations are expected at this point. Always need to be watched though in case the lower atmosphere is a bit colder than what I’m thinking.

Christmas Day: Dry and pleasant with highs well into the 40s

Wednesday: Scattered showers possible but not all day rain. Milder too with highs well into the 40s again. Some upside depending on the timing of the off and on rain. Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday AM.

Thursday: Morning storms/rain will quickly move through then we get dry slotted and may have variable clouds. Windy and warm with highs well into the 50s…with 60s not out of the question south of KC. Turning colder in the afternoon based on the current frontal timing.

Friday>Saturday: Colder with 30s Friday and near 30° Saturday.



  • Discussion:

On behalf of Michelle and Karli as well as yours truly…Merry Christmas!

Not sure I’ll get to a blog on Tuesday or not…if I do it will likely be later and not earlier.

Today will be the 14th straight day with temperatures above average in KC. We’re running 3° above average for the month overall. This is the 51st warmest December through yesterday’s date…and we’ll be going up higher in the rankings through Thursday it appears.

So far this month we’ve had about 1″ of moisture, included in that is about 1/2″ of snow…which is rather low.

We typically average closer to about 5″ this month…we’re going to need some heroic efforts to get there and nothing is expected through the weekend to add to those totals. There may be something early next week to finish off the year but we’re going to be losing the colder air later in the weekend…so things aren’t quite aligned yet.

That may change heading into the 1st 5-10 days (at least) in January as we should go back into a colder pattern at least be more vulnerable to colder air masses coming towards the region. Tough to say if we get into the full cold or more along the glancing cold shots…but the milder weather nationwide will be changing.

While I hate the colors in the above map…the lack of anything green (meaning below average temperatures is certainly apparent. This map should update on it’s own later today and tomorrow as well.

Again it appears that the 1st week of January will be different than what we’ve been going through these last couple of weeks. The “staying” power of the cold though that comes in is a question. I’m still not seeing anything that has “long-term” cold written all over it…like what we saw back in OCT and NOV and all the below average days for those two months. Transient cold yes…

We’ll need to get snow on the ground for something more noteworthy…and there may be opportunities to start the new year.

We do have a fast moving wave coming our way this evening…initially it will be fighting dry air but we should at least get some showers from that. Right now the majority, if not entirely, looks to be liquid in KC. Our margin for rain/snow changeover is only a few thousand feet or so That’s the level above us where snow will be falling…and then melting as it comes down through air that is above freezing locally this evening.

Forecast soundings during the evening show that the freezing level is only about 3-4000 feet thick from the surface upwards…above that it will be snowing. Those flakes though should melt as they come down through the layer of above 32° air between the surface and about 4,000 feet. Some flakes could sneak through towards the northeast of KC…but right now it appears that the vast majority of this will be liquid in the KC area. I’ll watch the atmospheric profile tonight just in case that layer of above 32° air is not as thick.

Here is a look at the latest radar from Pleasant Hill…

and a look at the HRRR model showing the precip types. Both these pieces of information will auto-update as the day/night moves along.

Then tomorrow is quiet.

A rather significant storm will then come out of the SW part of the country…this will lead to a strong surface storm developing and tracking towards the NW of KC.

This will place us firmly in the warmer air on the front side of the system WED/THU. Dew points will pop as well and that means a decent chunk of gulf moisture will stream northwards too.

With the surface and upper level storm passing NW of KC…we should get dry slotted rather quickly Thursday. This will cut-off the better rains…and right now we’re looking at roughly 1/2″-1 1/2″ of rain in the KC area from this nest storm.

The colder air will come into the area sometime Thursday and we may be looking at falling temperatures at some point during the day.

Here is the NAM model showing the evolution of things…

You can see the wave digging into the SW US as we go higher in the atmosphere. Look for the “U” shaped system towards the 4 corners area of the SW US.

For timing purposes…12Z is 6AM…18Z is Noon…00Z is 6PM and 06Z is 12AM.

IF that storm aloft was farther south…more towards I-44 the end result of it would be MUCH whiter locally. Since it’s farther north though..this will end up being a big ticket snow for parts of the Plains and northern Plains especially.

This forecast is a changeable one…but it your traveling towards the NW of KC…be aware of the snow potential on WED>FRI.

Some more detailed information from western NE..

Still some issues, especially when you get farther towards the SE parts of SD and central NE but it appears that parts of MN will definitely be “in it”.

 

We’ll look at this one from afar though and enjoy the milder air for a couple of more days.

Behind the storm we turn more seasonable and colder FRI-SUN AM but assuming there aren’t any significant weather changes we should be OK for the game this Sunday in Arrowhead and a westerly downslope component to a retreating cold air mass may mean a pop in the temperatures to closer to 40° with perhaps some upside.

Merry Christmas and I’ll be tracking Santa for you tonight at 5/6/9/10

Our feature photo comes from Glenna Oidtman down in Grandview, MO

Joe

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