Joe’s Weather Blog: Merry Christmas and there is rain coming again (TUE-12/25)

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Let’s try and keep this blog a bit shorter than average since it’s Christmas and I’m sure many of you want to move on to other things! Overall the weather has really be reasonable for the last couple of weeks…since about the 10th or so. Temperatures today will be above average for the 15th straight day..and we’re going to add another couple of days to that before the colder air comes back later in the week.



  • Forecast:

Today: Filtered sunshine and mild for December with highs around 50°

Tonight: Increasing and lowering clouds with lows in the 30s

Wednesday: Off and on showers with highs well into the 40s. It won’t rain all day though and the winds will be increasing as the day moves on.

Thursday: Morning rains with perhaps some thunderstorms. Rather windy and mild with highs well into the 50s

Friday: Colder and blustery with highs in the 30s



  • Discussion:

It really has been a nice stretch of weather these days…we’re running more than 3° above average for the month…and any cold for the rest of the year appears to be transient right now with nothing locking in for awhile. As a matter of fact from the 11th through yesterday this is the 19th warmest period…

Unfortunately the Christmas is a brown one. There never was any true hope for a White Christmas. My opening salvo from about 2 weeks away calling for a slim 5% chance was a wise forecast. The system last night never really was cold enough far enough down into the atmosphere which was my concern from weeks ago. We’ve lost the cold air that’s needed to get snow. It may have been close…and IF we would’ve had the cold air last night…we might’ve sneaked in a dusting to 1″.

We’ll always have 2009…remember that storm? 6-10″ of snow in the KC region on Christmas Eve and early on Christmas morning. I think that was my last Christmas off from work as a matter of fact.

Those were the days.

Meanwhile the next storm that’s going to head this way is showing up nicely and has been well modeled for the most part.

You can see it moving through southern CA this morning…

This storm will move towards Santa Fe, NM then curl up through the northern Plains region over the next couple of days…we’ll be on the warm side of the storm meaning southerly winds will bring in moisture and warmer air, especially Wednesday night into Thursday mid-day.

At the surface a rather strong surface low will move through the Plains as well.

The images above are off the NAM model. Note how the storm really intensifies. The “radar” looking contours are the amounts of precipitation (rain or snow) every 6 hours. The solid red line is what is referred to as the 540 thickness line. That is an approximate rain/snow line. Again a rough guide at best. For example…last night that line was south of KC and it didn’t snow locally because of too warm conditions in the lower part of the atmosphere.

You can really see how the storm organizes later tomorrow.

In that colder air…snow will be flying…

Winter storm warnings are in effect for western KS right now…

In lighter blue are the winter storm watches and the purple colors are the winter weather advisories.

Morning forecasts are calling for in excess of 12″ of snow up there…and with the winds…near blizzard conditions are expected.

Minneapolis is on the edge right now…

Going farther south…

and into western KS…

For us…again we’re going to be way too warm.

Showers will be off and on on Wednesday…then on Thursday we may get dry slotted after some morning rains that will zip through the area. The issue then is do we break up the clouds. IF we do…near 60° weather is possible…IF we don’t we’ll remain in the 50s. Heck when you wake up we may be close to 50°.

The storm will pass by towards the NW of KC…then a cold front will sweep through…that ushers in the colder weather for FRI>SUN AM.

There is a possible zippy snow maker to watch for on Saturday morning. I’ll get more excited about that tomorrow…but it needs to be watched since the air overall will be cold…snow ratios will be favorable and a light fluffy snow could accumulate quickly since the ground will be cold enough from the get go. It won’t be a lot but there could be road issues. This may slide more southwards though so I don’t want to get overly worked up about it at this point. Areas from KC southwards towards I-44 will want to pay attention to this just in case. The GFS model which has been the most aggressive for this for a couple of days…today has this sliding just south of KC.

It’s worth watching…

Our feature photo comes from Becky Anderson…up at Worlds of Fun!

Joe

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