Joe’s Weather Blog: A very wet and not white storm (WED-12/26)

Hope you had a wonderful Christmas…yesterday was the 15th straight day with temperatures above average and today will be the 16th day. We’ll tack on one more tomorrow before we see a temporary change towards colder weather. In looking at the weather pattern over the next couple of weeks…and granted this is speculation on my part…I just am not seeing a set-up for any appreciable snows (over 3″) anytime soon. Several weeks ago I was wondering how things might shake out a bit after the early hits of snow…well this December is making up for the big start…with not much snow (so far). There are a couple of things to watch…one over the weekend and another into the 1st 10 days of January. We’re going to have a problem with coordinating cold air and snow maker systems though…because right now things are out of whack.

  • Forecast:

Today: Afternoon showers but not as concentrated as this morning. Highs well into the 40s

Tonight: Another round of rain and potential thunderstorms. Temperatures will be steady to rising overnight with daybreak temperatures closer to 50°

Thursday: Rain will be zipping through in the morning hours…windy and warm with highs well into the 50s…maybe some 60s in parts of the area. IF there is sunshine in parts of the area…65° is not out of the question. The colder air will surge through later in the afternoon so we’ll see a fast drop later in the afternoon or early in the evening. It may work out to take down some outside decorations in the afternoon.

Friday: Colder and blustery with temperatures in the 30s

  • Discussion:

Let’s start with radar…

The better rains are shifting northwards late this morning.

There should be drier times this afternoon with just some scattered showers expected.

The storm that will be moving through the Plains region is now coming into the Desert SW…

That storm will take a track towards the NW of KC…as the NAM model illustrates and you can see this track more clearly as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so.

Take a look at this map…note the “U” shape in the Plains…

That is the storm moving through…also note the strong winds coming up through the area…this is for 18,000 feet or so. Those are 100+ knot winds up there…closer to the surface…the winds above us will be 30-40 kts or close to 40+ MPH and that’s one of the reasons why the stronger winds are likely tomorrow…we could see gusts to about 30+ MPH or so…the key will be if we truly get into the dry slot and clear out the skies enough to stir the air up even more.

Overnight tonight a large area of rain will develop towards the southern Plains and race towards the NNE at a fast speed. I’d show you the HRRR model but I’m having an issue because of the government shutdown that is preventing me from linking to certain sites that auto-update.

The NAM model shows the warmth ahead of the cold front…note the large contrast from east to west. Depending on the timing of the front…it’s not out of the question for those 60s to sneak towards the State Line region.

That colder air will sweep through and we’ll see a marked temperature drop later in the afternoon.

On the colder side of the storm…heavy snow is likely through the western and northern Plains region.

Now I hesitate to post these kind of maps…and obviously things can change rather quickly but I do like to see trends of extremes one way or the other…and for snow lovers…this would be the “other”. This is the 16 day forecast (I know it’s ridiculous) for snow totals off the GFS model…

Ummmm KC has an issue there.

So I wanted to take a look at the EURO ensemble probabilities…and this is for at least 3+” of snow on a cumulative basis. This will carry us over the next 15 days…

Mostly under a 20% chance on the MO side and somewhat above 20% on the KS side…that isn’t overly helpful really in terms of getting anything big around these parts…and that is spread out over 15 days(!).

There will be some additional cold shots of air coming…one towards New Years Day…another towards next weekend. There should be moderation in between though to balance the colder weather.

Frankly it’s not a great pattern for snow lovers.

Our feature photo comes from Caitlin McElroy taken a couple of weeks ago.


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