Joe’s Weather Blog: In and out cold shots to finish the year (FRI-12/28)

Nice to get a day off yesterday…my goal every year is to put the Christmas lights up outside in shorts…and take them down in shorts. I accomplished the 1st goal, and while I had jeans on yesterday at least it was comfortable enough in the afternoon not to have a winter coat on. Of course that was until the front moved in later in the afternoon. Since then, and today will not be an exception, it has gotten cold and will remain cold into Sunday morning.



  • Forecast:

Today: Cloudy and cold with steady temperatures in the 20s

Tonight: IF the clouds hang tough…it may not drop much but skies may well clear off and it will tank down to around 10°, perhaps colder in the outlying areas where skies clear off faster

Saturday: Partly cloudy and cold with highs near 30°

Sunday: Milder in the afternoon with highs well into the 40s



  • Discussion:

Well at least we’ll have yesterday…

We made it up well into the 50s…then the temperatures dropped fast behind the cold front that came through the region.

We also had 50+ winds yesterday morning too.

Now we’re back to typical December weather in a month that has been mostly boring for December weather action. Through yesterday we’re now some 4° above average for the month as a whole…and this is the 40th warmest December in KC weather history going back to the 1880s. That will change to finish the month though.

From a snow aspect through we remain tied for 31st in terms of the least snowiest December ad that may or may not change before the end of the year.

At this point the start of 2019…at least the 1st 10 days or so…look to be very down then up…with a continuing lack of snow systems that isn’t going to make snow lovers very happy at least. Do you realize that IF we didn’t have that blizzard with the almost 6″ of snow @ KCI connected to it…we’d be sitting at 2″ right now…or thereabouts and wondering IF this winter was another terrible snow winter set-up.

As far as the cold air goes…after moderating quite a bit for Sunday…another cold front will come in on Monday afternoon or so and once again send temperatures crashing, perhaps moreso compared to today’s cold weather. Temperatures just above the surface at least are forecast to tank to near 0° on Tuesday morning…that would mean lows of near 5° Tuesday AM even with out snow on the ground.

And then that cold air mass will rotate away from the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. and I wouldn’t be surprised if another run towards 55° occurs later NEXT week too…so IF you didn’t get the lights down yesterday…you may want to wait a week to take them down whe you can feel your fingers.

Nothing is locking in…nor will it for the next couple of weeks at least in terms of steady weather…really it looks like typical type stuff…transient cold shots of air and a lack of snow systems.

The one thing to watch will be for a southern storm that is going to move more towards St Louis than KC Monday. While it appears that St Louis will get a big rain from this…we’ll watch the western side of the storm as we might get some rain from this…and it’s worth watching the timing of the colder air coming into the area on Monday as well in case there are some shenanigans with the two happening at the same time.

In the last blog I posted the GFS 16 day forecast for snow accumulations…which really aren’t good maps to post anytime…but I do look at them and they catch my eye, only when I see extremes. The GFS typically overdoes these snow maps and the map I”m going oto post below is a strict 10:1 snow map…meaning 1″ of rain equals 10″ of snow. it’s not any deeper than that. The reason why I’m posting it…is i’s extreme and NOT in good way for a snow lover. (via NEXLAB)

The map above is through the 13th of January…

The next map is the Canadian snow forecast…for the next 10 days…through the 7th.

There is a model that shows a potential storm developing around the 11th of JAN but it would be a cold rain according to that model in the KC region with perhaps some snow into IA. The EURO extended control model has also been hinting at “something” in that timeframe.

Oh another note…the transition of models from the GFS platform to the GFS-FV3 (allegedly improved) platform may now be delayed. I think it was scheduled for around the 19th or so…but all this may get a new time frame because of the government shutdown. All work has stopped regarding modeling improvements until the shutdown is over with. Just another weird way things are being impacted.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Samantha Walling of the Plaza all lit for Christmas. Still have a couple of weeks to go to check out the lights!

Joe

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