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Joe’s Weather Blog: What are your biggest weather events of 2018 (SUN-12/30)

In a month that was marked by a long above average stretch of days…18 I think…when it wants to get cold, even without snow on the ground it can still get cold. Yesterday we struggled in the 20s all day long as the clouds hung tough…then overnight the colder air started to leave us and SW winds today are helping to warm the temperatures up well into the 40s. It’s a nice turnaround because we’re going to turn things around again tomorrow night into Wednesday morning…and then probably turn things around (in a better way) on Thursday.

Today’s title of the blog refers to the biggest weather events, in your opinion of 2018. Yesterday I created a post of FB asking for rankings…and today I want to bring that idea to the blog readers. Feel free to rank the events from 1 to 10…1 being the “biggest” event of 2018..with 10 being the lowest event. It was a wild and woolly year…all over the place really from tornadoes to droughts to floods to record heat and record cold!

But first…



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Increasing clouds and not as cold with lows in the 30s

Monday: Rain developing in the morning with temperatures struggling in the mid to upper 30s. As the rain ends there could be a brief changeover to some wet snow. It’s possible there is some decent snow somewhere in the area (most should melt). Falling nighttime temperatures as the colder air dumps in. Winds increase to 15-30 MPH with the colder weather coming too. There is a chance IF their is lingering moisture that there could be some black ice developing as well overnight. That though is sort of iffy depending on how long the precip in the afternoon lasts. The faster it’s over with the faster the roads will dry off.

Tuesday: Cold with a good deal of clouds around and highs in the lower 20s

Wednesday: Cold with highs near 32°



  • Discussion:

Let’s start with the “biggest” weather events in 2018..here are the nominations. If you don’t want to list all 10…give me a Top 4 in the comments or on FB…

1- Ending 385 straight hours of <32° temperatures on 1/7
2-Another snow-less winter (2017-18) with 7.7″ snow
3-Delayed Spring…2nd coldest April…Easter snow…5 record lows
4-Hot May…2nd warmest…9° above average…3 record highs tied or broken
5-Metro tornadoes on May 2nd in Raytown(2)…Belton…OP and NW MO…all EF0-1
6) Hot June…15 days 90°+ also Lake Latawana tornado (EF0)
7) July…1st 100° day since 2013 and the worsening drought
8) October snows…earliest measurable on 10/14…heavy rains all month…7.6″ above average
9) Coldest November in KC history…8° below average
10) The Blizzard on 11/25 with 4-7″ of snow and 55 MPH winds in the region.

Did I miss anything?

There are some goodies in that list…

Onwards…

Monday’s system is coming into the SW part of the country today…and you an see the higher clouds streaming northwards now.

There is a ong band of tropical moisture extending all the way into the Pacific Ocean as you can see. The upper level storm helping to bring this swath towards the NE is way down in Mexico…

Its rapidly going to come out through western TX tonight and zip towards central MO tomorrow afternoon. It’s actually sort of too bad we don’t have more residual cold air for this to work with aloft because it’s not a terrible path for snows in the Plains really. Alas not really meant to be unless we get a end game changeover later in the AM and early PM which is possible.

As the system zips by…colder air will start moving into the region. That colder air at the surface is located just across the border right now…

(temperatures in RED)

It’s cold but it’s not crazy cold at least on the southern side of that air mass…it does get nasty cold farther north…I think I saw a low down to -50° up there somewhere earlier today.

There is a big (not overly strong by Arctic standards) 1033 mb HIGH in the NW Territories that will be coming southeastwards over the next few days…

The temperatures in the following map are in °C. That is Canada!

So the cold air comes in and then eases away Wednesday afternoon.

We should warm up in a big way for the end of the week into the weekend with 50s likely.

But…

Oh boy…

Today’s EURO…and we’re going to go on the assumption that it’s not handing things correctly in terms of what it’s doing with the next system coming into the SW part of the country. It’s sort of on an island by itself. It visited the Island yesterday…then left the island last night…now it went back to the place that may drive a meteorologist a bit nutty…especially one looking for snow.

Yesterday I mentioned that the only thing that could hold back a warm-up would be the path that a developing upper level storm was taking well south of the KC area. I cautioned that while it was 6 days away…now 5…that crazy things could happen IF it deceided to wander a few hundred miles farther northwards…and so today…guess what…it’s wandering a bit.

1st I want to show you the difference in runs from last night and this morning.

Last night…

New run today…

This is for the 18,000 foot level…basically it’s about a state slower today and deeper and now the jet stream winds are sort of poking right up the State Line as opposed to poking into the OH Valley region.

This is an interesting turn of events…so let’s look at the new GFS model…all times are for 12PM Thursday.

Big difference in strength and placement…with the GFS the “ridge” above the storm is flopping over to the I-70 corridor…that is milder air flopping over the storm to the south of the region.

Oh boy…

IF the EURO is spot on…this is what happens…valid for 6PM Thursday…

I’m not going to post a snow map of that but will let you in on a 1″ northside to 12″ south part of the area snowstorm.

So let’s see IF there are any members of the GFS that are thinking this is possible…yesterday there were a few that’s why I mentioned that it would be wise NOT to totally discount this out of hand.

There really is only one member out of the 20+ GFS ensemble members that are cranking out something somewhat close to the EURO solution.

Not exactly a confidence builder…

The EURO does seem this season to be really overdoing these southern stream waves and over intensifying them to some degree and I think that’s what it may be doing now. The fight I’m having is that this time frame is really in the EURO’s wheelhouse…4-6 days out…it typically has decent solutions that I like to lean towards…but my goodness.

IF their ensembles (due in over the next 2 hours) follow suit I’m going to look much harder at this solution..because it’s a potential snow maker and a big one. Update…they’re in and they’re sort of similar to the operational model. I may wait another day to jump on this bandwagon but it’s an interesting reversal of fortune.

Models not handling a piece of energy dropping into the SW US from the NW US and then kicking out in a timely fashion and taking a decent+ path for snow making potential in the KC area are certainly a dime a dozen.

In a weird way…it’s sort of like the system tomorrow except on the EURO it’s got the residual cold air from the system coming tomorrow night though WED AM to work with. It seems like it’s capturing that cold air…bombing out the upper level storm even more…creating more dynamic cooling and going to town with snow potential. It caught my attention at least!!!!

IF the EURO is right, despite the fact that we lurch into the warmer air aloft bigly come Friday and Saturday…there would be leftover snow o the ground to contend with…so my forecast of the 50s would be “interesting”.

I want to get a better idea what the ensembles of the EURO run are doing before I throw up a deeper yellow caution flag.

Our feature photo comes from Jerry Walz of a double rainbow near Warrensburg the other day…

Joe

 

 

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