Joe’s Weather Blog: Drops…flakes…and cold (MON-12/31)
I’ll be compiling the list of Top Weather events for 2018 in Tuesday’s blog…if you’re interested in the nominations feel free to check out yesterday’s blog and leave me your comments there or on FB. There is a lot to go over today though including a possible changeover in parts of the area around lunch or so…and then there is the increasing conundrum for Thursday and a potential snow-maker that will be near the region as well.
Today: Rain this morning may mix with or in spots change to some snow. IF that happens there may be some pretty large wet snow flakes mixed in with the activity. It may not last for long and with temperatures in the mid 30s it won’t stick much BUT IF it comes down hard enough in spots it could coat some things. It should wind down fast by 1-2PM and actually may end up as some rain again. Temperatures in the mid 30s today
Tonight: The colder air comes back into the picture with falling temperatures and increasing winds. Lows drop to 10-15° by daybreak with near 0° wind chills
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and cold with highs 20-25°
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and not as cold with highs closer to 32°
Let’s start with the rain this morning…
That’s a good rain coming down…some will see over 1″ especially SE of the KC area but even in the Metro we should get 1/2″ or so…maybe more in some areas, especially south of I-70.
Aloft the temperatures will start dropping in a few more hours…towards 10-11AM or so…and they may drop enough to ohelp generate some snow flakes later this morning. IF that happens there could be a brief period in some areas of moderate to heavy snow mixing in with the rain as a pocket of colder air just above the surface allows the snowflakes to make it to the ground. Sometimes you can get a fast wet snow accumulation with this scenario…then it melts after the snow ends since temperatures may remain in the mid 30s…or even go up a degree or two. Something to watch for later this morning.
The morning sounding from Topeka shows that there is still quite a bit of air above 32° over the area right now…all that air to the right of the blue line that’s thicker represents air above 32°. Now notice how the red/green lines spread apart above the surface…
That is is roughly between 5-10,000 feet at Topeka…it’s actually drier air in that layer. Locally it’s saturated since we have the rain this morning…so locally the 2 lines are closer together (IF there was a balloon launching on top of KC)…so that area of 32°+ is probably A LOT smaller on top of KC…hence we’re seeing the model potential of snow to develop as the atmosphere cools down aloft a couple of degrees. It’s still borderline…but sometimes borderline scenarios play-out in dramatic fashion.
Tonight the colder air pours into the area. Most roads will be drying out by the time the colder air gets here…but worth watching in case there are any areas of black ice forming…also there may be some flurries or even a couple of sow showers to contend with.
Tomorrow is cold…not as cold as 1/1/2019 when temperatures tanked to -11° in the morning…e only had a high of 9°. That was the coldest morning of 2018 too!
Then there is Thursday…
The EURO is still trying to create an accumulating snow in the KC region, especially on the south side…and it may be trying to find a needle in a haystack with this new storm spinning towards the south…but it may have a better idea of the potential. There are still some issues with this but it’s tapping into the leftover cold air that will be around in the wake of the dump of cold air coming into the region this evening. The GFS keeps this just about 4 counties south of KC…more towards I-44…but the weird way this is happening could suggest a somewhat farther north solution may be more correct.
The thing is…somewhat farther north means there is the potential of rain/snow on the far north side of whatever develops then when you get into the core of the precipitation…it’s cold enough through the atmosphere to generate accumulating snow. Where does that set up…close to I-70…farther south towards I-44…farther south than that?
The EURO ensembles have increasing chances of 1″ snows in the area highlighted below…
You can sort of see the highest risk is towards I-44 BUT it’s not an inconsequential risk locally.
The GFS still has this father south of KC…the NAM is trying to create some mixed precip that could change to snow in the afternoon on Thursday as well…so it’s worth paying attention too just in case…perhaps moreso today compared to yesterday. As a matter of fact the newest NAM model has the upper level low even father north…with a more favorable accumulating snow track…and without the concern of any prolonged mixture. The run is cold enough for an accumulating snow locally in the region.
Could there be another accumulating snow to start 2019. Then again there is a chance later this morning too…so maybe 2 accumulating snows over the next 4 days? Possible.
Whatever happens on Thursday would affect a potential warm-up on Friday and perhaps Saturday too. The atmosphere will be ready to warm up…but snow on the ground may be a hindrance.
Our own 9AM producer Kelsey has the feature photo of the day…great sunset yesterday!