Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow developing + the issue that may not be getting enough attention (FRI-1/18)

Shorter blog this afternoon just for an update to be published. Winter Weather Advisories continue for KC Metro area with Winter Storm Warnings in Northern and Northeastern MO. See the previous blog here for additional details. Snow has just started in Northern MO and will still take several hours to affect the KC area.

One concern I have is that we my be setting up for a Flash Freeze overnight into Saturday AM. More rain then a mix then wet and melting snow on the roads then sticking snow on the roads with plunging temperatures is concerning to me and I think may not be getting it’s due in terms of other risks with everything else going on tonight.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Rain changing to a wintry mix…timing is about the same…7-9 PM on the north side and 8-10PM or so on the south side of the Metro. There may be a period of heavy snow too for a few hours. There will be melting of the snow on the roads for awhile as well, not to the extent or the time as what happened last week though. Lows dropping to near 20° by daybreak. Hence why I’m concerned about flash freezing tonight

Saturday: Snow ends early in the AM…windy and cold with near 0° wind chills and temperatures mostly in the teens. There may be a sliver of late afternoon sunshine

Sunday: Partly cloudy and cold with lows near 0° and highs in the 20s.



  • Discussion:

Let’s start with the surface map as of 4PM. Quite the temperature contrast with 70s in Texas and tanking temperatures through the teens in the Plains.

That cold air comes in later tonight into Saturday morning.

Forecast 6AM temps…

Tough for temperatures to go anywhere tomorrow…probably keep trending down.

It’s VERY wet out there this afternoon from the fog, the light rain, and the melting snow…you can see why I’m concerned with flash freezing overnight into Saturday morning. The roads may be nasty in the morning.

Precip is expanding rapidly right now as the storm is starting to influence the lifting the atmosphere more and more.

There are still questions…it’s just the way this will be I guess. I believe the heaviest snows will be in northern MO from this…over 6″ possible. I still think a 2-6″ forecast is a good one for the KC Metro area. It appears that the higher amounts may be more on the northside BUT I wouldn’t bet the house on it right now.

Model data is cranking out about 1/3″ or so (a bit more in spots) from 9PM tonight to 9AM tomorrow. The accumulating snow window though may be much shorter…perhaps 10PM to 4AM give or take and it won’t be snowing hard that whole time. So I don’t want to discount the high side number or the low side number for areas on the south side since the snow change will be delayed by a couple of hours farther south…I think.

IF everybody is seeing pouring down snow by 9PM…I mean real decent snows then…we’re going to get more than 4″ I think and some could get more than 6″ in the Metro as the wrap-around snows.

 

Here is the 3PM HRRR model…for timing…3Z is 9PM…6Z is 12AM…9Z is 3AM…12Z is 6AM

This is going to wrap up quickly before daybreak according to this.

Feature photo from ‎Susie Leverich George‎

Joe

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