Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow is gone…sun will come and the cold won’t end (WED-1/23)

Good Wednesday to you. An icy, snowy mess out there will start to improve today with sunshine expected in the region and cold temperatures this morning will moderate somewhat as the afternoon moves along. That’s the good news…the bad news is that the repeated arctic air attacks will get stronger over the next 10 days or so as this roller coaster weather pattern continues. There may be opportunities for brief moderation for 24-36 hours or so…but the is a LOT of cold air that’s going to get injected into the pattern over the next 2 weeks.



  • Forecast:

Today: Becoming mostly sunny and cold with highs 25-30°. Winds will be dropping off and switching more towards the west direction

Tonight: Interestingly the cold air is retreating fast…we go into downslope warming, at least the air above us will be getting warmer. At the ground, temperatures will be steady and perhaps even creep up. Lows well into the 20s

Thursday: Dropping temperatures again…from the 20s early in the AM to the teens in the later afternoon

Friday: Cold morning…5-10° and there is potential for it to be colder depending on the cloud cover situation and or the southwest wind component. Then during the afternoon I’m expecting lots of clouds and chilly weather with highs closer to 30°



  • Discussion:

Our wild winter weather continues. It’s always interesting to me to remember that it wasn’t that long ago…remember after the blizzard through most of December, that temperatures were mostly very mild? It’s like we flipped the switch to cold and that flip will continue for quite some time. There will be periods of moderation…then another sharp arctic air mass that will nasty.

I’d be a little surprised if we don’t see sub-zero temperatures at some point over the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile the storm from last night has moved away…leaving behind a well forecast dusting to 2″ accumulation in KC with 2-5″ up towards St Joe and along and north of 36 highway into northern MO. The freezing rain/sleet combo cut the potential totals by at least 2″ or so in KC. The problem was that freezing rain really has solidified now with an inch or two of snow on top of it. So the roads are messy and won’t improve till the sunshine starts to go to work in combination with the road treatments. Things will get better fast though today, especially on the treated roads.

As mentioned we need sunshine…and the satellite pictures are encouraging for that today…

On to the cold…

Numerous waves coming in…some stronger than others with brief “interludes” of “warmer” air in between. Obviously the timing will change…probably to the faster side, especially next week…but here are some ideas off the EURO model.

Wave one is tomorrow. Let’s go up to 5,000 feet and see how temperatures up there compare to average.

In our weather world with the colors in the above map…we refer to it as Barney cold!

Wave number 2 comes early next week. The map below is for later Monday

Wave number 3…

This would be later next Wednesday…and this is probably going to speed up.

As each wave pulls out…some warming could happen between cold shots. Timing those brief interludes is not something that I want to hang my hat on though.

Here is a look at the EURO highs and lows…note those nutty lows. The EURO has had a problem with low temperatures especially in these cold air masses…so those lows are too extreme (we hope)

Again note the pops between cold blasts too.

Here is the GFS forecast.

Again a true roller coaster ride.

Onwards…

KCI is now up to at least 16.5″ of snow (through last night)…and while no big storms are coming…the right placed disturbances can give us more snow over the next 2 weeks, especially with these arctic air dumps. 18.8″ is average…so this will be the 1st time in years that we’re going to have above average snow amounts.

We’ve had continuous snow on the ground up at KCI since the 12th. So that’s 12 straight days. I was thinking to myself I don’t remember us having at least 1″ of snow on the ground for that long, at least recently. So I wanted to see the record for the longest streak of at least 1″ of snow on the ground…I was surprised by the record.

52 days! Wow! You can see our current run is still a week away or so from getting into the Top 30. We had 17 straight days back in 2014 for the start of February.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Terrie Franklin Wooten

OK I really need to take a day or two off from the blog.

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Rockdoc

    Thanks Joe. I’ve been monitoring those arctic cold blasts as well. I agree that the EURO doesn’t seem to handle the cold lows as well. At least I hope it doesn’t verify. Brutal, bitter cold. Dangerous for pets and humans. Will keep the bird feeders busy too.

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