Stay weather aware Thursday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Another snow comes this way (FRI-2/8)

A bright but cold day out there today and after a cold start to the day (4°) we’re going to only get to around 20° or so this afternoon. Hey at least the sunshine is out. The pattern overall is a stormy one…and I’m getting to the point, when looking at the various set-ups that I’d be surprised IF we didn’t finish the month with at least a 3-6″ snowstorm. The storms will be there…the tracks are the question marks.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Clear and cold with lows near 10°

Saturday: AM sunshine followed by increasing clouds and highs 30-35°

Saturday night: Snow looks increasingly likely after 8PM…maybe towards 12AM. Accumulations are likely. Not a big storm. Lows in the upper 20s

Sunday: Before daybreak snow ends…perhaps as some freezing drizzle. Overall a pretty cloudy day with highs in the 30s.



  • Discussion:

So the visible satellite picture is telling.

 

Notice the white area that doesn’t move along the I-35 corridor…that is the leftover snow/ice/sleet that is turning the terrain white.

There is a LOT of white to the north of here…and it’s influencing temperatures…at 1PM (in RED)

It’s 25 below way up towards the Canadian border!

I alluded to this earlier…the cold air and the milder air the south will be battling it out over the next 2 weeks. A series of storms will try and bring milder air northwards and allow colder air to dive southwards into their circulations. IF these storms go farther south…we’ll hit the snow jackpot. If they go farther north we won’t see much at all. IF they come along the I-70 corridor…then we have headaches with precipitation types. More on that as things develop.

Tomorrow night will be another opportunity to add to the 18.7″ of snow that we’ve seen so far this year. Average for an entire winter is 18.8″. So the mid fall forecasts of more snow that average, for the first time in years…will verify. Perhaps even by Sunday morning.

Tomorrow will start sunny and cold but clouds will increase as the afternoon moves along. These clouds will be because of what is referred to as warm air advection (WAA) in the weather world. Basically this occurs when the temperatures are warming in whatever layer of the atmosphere you want to look at. In the case tomorrow…it will be mostly above us…

The WAA creates lift since the air is warmer (lighter) and when factoring in a series of small little waves coming through the Plains…the lift is enhanced enough to create clouds and snow (since it will be cold enough). We’re looking at snow because unlike the other day the atmosphere overall will be cold enough to support snow formation and maintenance. There won’t be that pronounced warm layer above us (50°) the other day as a hindrance. Although IF those winds at around 5000 feet bring in enough “warm” air there could again be some sleet mixing in on the south side of the region later Saturday night.

With that said…WAA events can make weather folks look foolish sometimes…they tend to happen faster than the models think…and also they tend to be heavier sometimes as well. The model data has the activity starting later tomorrow night…and it shouldn’t last too long. So I don’t want to go too crazy for totals since this is going to be a short window I think.

Areas farther north towards northern and north central MO may see the snow start and end for a longer window…and some 2-3″ totals up there wouldn’t surprise me. Odds are this is north of 36 highway and perhaps towards and east of 65 highway.

For KC proper…let’s start with a dusting to 2″. Feeling is that we’ll be on the lower half of that…but again in case there are surprises and something overproduces somewhere in the Metro, especially on the northside…I want to keep the 2″ total out there. This snow will be a wetter type snow but not as powdery as the snow that occurred a couple of weeks ago. A 10:1 ratio should work out. So 1/10″ liquid equals about 1″ of snow…

Beyond that beefier system comes in later Monday…not the greatest “only” snow track for that system at this point although the surface temperatures may have a tough time getting above 35° Monday with an east wind blowing. So I’m expecting some sort of rain/freezing rain combo perhaps with maybe some tail-end snow flakes as the system moves through early Tuesday.

Tuesday should be chilly.

As far as what happens beyond this…well let’s see. The next 10 days the EURO cranks out 7″ of snow…most next weekend…while the GFS has about 4″ or so. There will be storms…where they go though again is the question.

If you’re a snow lover though…you have to be happy with what we’ve had this season already…and there will be more…I promise.

I leave you with this…the snow totals over the last 18+ winters…

Our feature photo comes from Kevin Lewis @kevinlewis4848 via Twitter.

Joe

 

 

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