Stay Weather Aware Wednesday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Fast hitting snow early Sunday (SAT-2/9)

Good afternoon…clouds have quickly moved into the region today and it’s a sign of the next change in the weather that will occur (mostly while your sleeping) early Sunday. Snow is in the forecast, perhaps in some areas mixed with some sleet and accumulations are likely. It won’t be a lot but it may impact the roads for a few hours Sunday morning at least. There will be more off and on precipitation chances this week as a variety of systems impact the Plains.



  • Forecast: (updated at 8:30 PM)

Tonight: Cloudy skies with steady temperatures in the mid 20s. Snow/sleet develops after 3AM and perhaps closer to 5AM…and lingers till about daybreak before transitioning to drizzle or light freezing drizzle/mist.

Sunday: That mess ends..a dusting to 1″ is possible (more sleet=less snow)…then cloudy and chilly with highs in the mid 30s…1-3″ is possible north and northeast of the Metro

Monday: Rain likely with highs well into the 30s. Their may be a period of some freezing rain/drizzle at the onset depending on the morning temperatures.

Tuesday: Perhaps some AM snow on the backside of the storm…then turning colder with temperatures near 35° in the afternoon and blustery conditions with clearing skies. It will feel colder



  • Discussion:

Our active winter continues with several opportunities for precipitation. They all won’t be snow…but we’ll continue to add to the 18.7″ we’ve seen so far this snow season.

Next up on the agenda is some broadscale lift that will be generated overnight in the Plains. There isn’t a strong disturbance or anything to provide a lot of focus for that lift…it’s just a matter of winds above us coming from the SW and warmer air fighting northwards over the chilly surface air that is with us now.

Those scenarios are sort of tough to figure out. The air above us is trying to warm up…the air which we breath is still cold. So what happens is that we can get precipitation to form right on top of the region…and that’s what we expect to see overnight. When you go to bed tonight at 10 or 11PM…there may not be a thing on radar to look at…but if you wake up at4AM things may be blossoming on top of the area and moving towards the northeast.

Odds are most of that, if not all, from KC northwards will be snow…and it may snow at a pretty good clip for a couple of hours tonight. It will stick immediately and the roads may well get snow covered by daybreak Sunday. The way out of that snow is IF there is a 1-2° warming of the air above us with the SW winds cranking away (possible)…then we could see a sleet switch towards I-70 as well.

Areas a bit farther south of KC may have more sleet mixed in This should reduce the overall snow totals to under 1/2″. There won’t be thunder or lightning with this set-up…just not enough oompf to get that to happen.

Let’s start with radar…

Now move on to the short term model that updates about every hour (and should auto-update for you) called the HRRR model.

For times…00Z is 6PM…03Z is 9PM…06Z is 12AM…09Z is 3AM and 12Z is 6AM.

The most important change from yesterday is about a 3 hour delay in the arrival of the snow..although the clouds got here a few hours earlier than I thought today so we’ll see how that may speed things up overnight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the region later tonight into tomorrow AM.

The above counties in purple are under that advisory…almost all of the FOX 4 viewing area.

I’m expecting anywhere from a dusting to 1″ in KC…there is some upside to maybe 2″ IF it snows hard enough for an extra hour or so. Odds favor more of the 2-3″+ numbers towards northern and northeastern MO…north of 36 and east of 65 highways. Again if there is more sleet locally…it will be tough to get 1″…so hence the range in values for the KC metro area.

That’s #1.

Precipitation chance #2 comes tomorrow night into Monday. It will be “mostly” rain BUT there could be a few hours early Monday where we have some freezing drizzle/rain in the area IF the temperatures are 30°. That remains to be seen and is actually dependent on how warm we get tomorrow. Some model data has us around 40° in the late day…I’m not as bullish as that right now. Let’s shoot for around 35° give or take a couple.

That means we don’t have to fall much tomorrow night to get to 32° and the next wave of “whatever” comes our way before morning rush on Monday. So what comes in first may be that wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle and rain. Tough to say if that will impact the roads for rush hour…we should see a transition to all liquid as the morning moves along as temperatures get to the mid 30s. Remember for us to have widespread slick roads the temperatures usually have to be in the 28° range or colder. This won’t be the case Monday morning…although some sick areas are possible, especially on the Bridges and overpasses.

Interesting to note that the surface storm isn’t taking such a terrible path for more snow here…it’s a bit too far north…more importantly though the features that I track aloft are about 100 miles too far north for us to get snow on Monday. By Monday afternoon the temperatures a few thousand feet up are expected to be near to above 40°…that won’t do it obviously.

What could happen though is after the storm passes there may be some “wraparound” snow…whether the I-35 corridor gets involved with that we’ll see…it’s more likely towards northern MO…and some accumulations would be possible up there at least.

We’ll then go into another warming trend on Wednesday…this could get interesting because it could really warm up. The Tuesday chill is a brief one and will quickly move away Tuesday night. 50s are possible and if we can work everything out…60s are not out of the question…

Another storm will come through later Thursday or Friday with rain…and then a return towards colder weather.

So for you keeping score…dusting to 1″ early Sunday…some freezing rain to rain Monday…maybe a few flakes Tuesday AM…then fast warmth on WED>THU with 50s possible and some upside and finally that late week storm will need to be watched for Friday. All in a few days of work for Mother Nature in KC!

Our feature photo comes from Sandra Cox out towards Leeton, MO in Johnson Co, MO

Joe

 

 

 

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