Joe’s Weather Blog: More liquid than frozen for awhile (SUN-2/10)

Good Sunday afternoon…it’s not exactly a Chamber of Commerce day out there with clouds…some mist and cold weather. The temperatures though have crept to 33° as I start this blog and that’s the 1st time above freezing in 6 days…since 7AM on the 4th. It’s been awhile. Odds are we stay there for a bit of time which is a good thing as more rain is expected overnight into Monday especially as the wet pattern more or less continues.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy…misty and drizzly with temperatures near 32°

Monday: Off and on rain with highs in the mid>upper 30s. Yucky. There is still a chance of a few isolated slick areas north of KC in the morning…worth watching the temperatures in case it causes a few slick patches out there especially on the bridges and overpasses.

Tuesday: Turning colder in the AM (maybe a few flakes early) then clearing and blustery with highs in the mid>upper 30s in the afternoon

Wednesday: Maybe a run towards the 50s? Mostly sunny.



  • Discussion:

Well we ended up with little to no snow from KC southwards and more sleet for a few hours…another glaze was put down on top of the icy crust that was already out there. Anything not treated was slippery and we’re coming out of that now. The reason…a delay in the onset (by a few hours) compared to the thinking yesterday. That allowed the atmosphere just above us to get 1-2° warmer and now we had to fight a small layer of above freezing air it appears. On top of all that it wasn’t going to be a great set-up which I sort of recognized last night before the late shows so I cut the accumulation potential way down.

I’m watching one of my neighbors try to chisel the ice off the driveway. Nope…not even going to bother now. I’ll hope Mother Nature helps me with that tomorrow…or at least softens things out for me.

So what’s next?

It’s a system that is hitting the western US…with unusual snow in Seattle and rain up and down the coast.

Seattle has had more than 10″ of snow THIS month..that is a rarity. 2nd most at this point for February.

This total is also their total for the winter as well…and more is coming it appears. Take a look at their highest winter totals in the records…they’ve actually had some big seasons there which surprised me. 67.5″ and 63.6″ is nothing to sneeze at and considering our record is 68″ in KC…pretty impressive!

Anyway..a storm out there will move towards the Rockies tonight and into the Plains tomorrow into tomorrow night. To follow it’s journey let’s go up to about 18,000 feet and watch the “U” shape come into the Rockies and try and close off into an upper-level low on Tuesday morning in MO.

For timing…12Z is 6AM and 00Z is 6PM…06Z is 12AM and 18Z is Noon.

You know…that isn’t a bad track for snow…and it’s got my attention today.

One thing for sure…we’re going to see a continued flow of “less” cold weather from the south come northwards. At 12PM…south winds are getting us above freezing. The map below is via NEXLAB and shows the temperatures in RED.

There is a clash of air masses happening across the Plains…look towards western KS and NE…that’s the cold air that was with us all week long. Now look from here southwards…not exactly warm but at least above 32°.

That colder air mass to the west may get shoved a bit to the north tomorrow then come back southwards through our area on Tuesday. The storm Tuesday morning may or may not close off in MO like the NAM model that I showed you earlier does. The thing is IF it does close off…then there could be a band of some noteworthy snow transition occur on the backside of the storm. IF it doesn’t close off…this won’t be really an issue. I’m not convinced the NAM is right BUT when I see weird things happen in other parts of the country and the storm responsible for it is coming in to KC within 48 hours…I always keep my guard up. 

IF the NAM is right…again an IF…that could be a wet 2-4″ of sloppy snow across central MO/Lakes region especially.

Then the chilly air comes in and rotates through quickly on Tuesday but with sunshine in the afternoon we should warm up well into the 30s I think.

Wednesday reminds me of the day about 10 days ago where the temperatures popped into the 50s unexpectedly. Downsloping winds and hopefully enough mixing to give us something nice for a change.

Thursday could be warm as well before the next surface storm passes towards the south of KC allowing much colder air to come into the area Friday and perhaps bring our next risk of an accumulating snow to parts of the area.

That system on Friday, whether or not it gives us snow is what I call a potential “table-setter”. IF you’ve been watching me for the last couple of days I have not been shy about talking how I think we’re going to see at least 1 or maybe 2 decent snow events over the next few weeks. Not the 1-3s or the 2-4″ers…something that is more significant. The system on Friday pushes cold air into the region and that cold air gets stuck here for awhile with an active WSW to SW flow aloft. The EURO model is screaming to me about potential, maybe not this week (although don’t discount Friday) but perhaps the week of the 18th.

I’ll post maps tomorrow of the possibility…heck maybe it’s wrong BUT the potential is something that is fascinating to me. GFS is sniffing something too for that week as well.

Our feature photo comes from Elizabeth Hunsaker out towards Chilhowee, MO in Johnson Co, MO

Joe

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1 Comment

  • sedsinkc (@sedsinkc)

    My daughter who will graduate from the University of Washington in June is ecstatic about the snow in Seattle. A few more inches fell at SeaTac and on Vashon Island than near the UW campus where she currently resides, but she’s excited about more lowland snow chances for today until Tuesday. Maybe Seattle will set a new record for most snow in a February.

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