Stay weather aware Thursday

Joe’s Weather Blog: Onto round #2…then #3…then…enough! (SAT-2/16)

So another batch of wintry weather will move through the area overnight. For KC this snowy/wintry pattern is something that we don’t see set up that often. Certainly not in the last few years…and really I’m not sure when it will totally break down. There may be a questionable “relaxation” of the threats of winter weather at some point in about 10 days…but I have this feeling that we’re not done with the threats of snow and winter temperatures…I still think there is more to come.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Scattered evening snow showers…then a very light wintry mix then a switch back to light snow before daybreak. Lows near 20°

Sunday: Variable clouds and cold with highs near 30°

Monday: Partly sunny with highs in the 20s

Tuesday: Snow likely with highs in the 20s. Accumulations likely as well again. Snowstorm possible later in the day/night.



  • Discussion:

Quick note to our viewers…thanks so much for watching FOX 4 Weather as much as you have this winter. We are by far the #1 station for weather information from morning to night in KC and it’s a joy to tell you the good weather and the bad weather to expect. Our ratings have never been as high or as consistent as they have been during all these winter events as they have this winter season. So from Michelle, Karli and yours truly…again thanks for allowing us into your living rooms.

One of these days spring will settle in…hopefully before summer comes. ;)

Onwards…

Snow totals from yesterday. a well predicted storm with timing perhaps a couple of hours slow on our end..once it started it started…then it dwindled for many by 3PM or so.

Pretty much widespread 3-5″ through the KC area with lighter totals towards the NE of KC and perhaps a heavier isolated amount down towards Cass and Johnson County, MO.

Samantha May sent this shot in of the evolution of the snow yesterday from a car”s perspective!

Here is a look from space…the cyan color represent snow while the white delineates the clouds.

There were so many accidents yesterday…and I saw this tweet video of the tragic accident out towards Oak Grove, MO yesterday. Sadly one person lost their life in this mess…

Video credit goes to Javon Weaver…my goodness. These crashes closed WB I-70 for hours yesterday.

The roads today are improving and the sunshine that is out there is helping tremendously today.

Looking at the images above…it seems as though we’re going to be OK through the early evening locally although all bets are off after 7-8PM tonight I think.

This is where it gets a bit dicier…because as another weak wave comes out into the Plains region it will develop some very light freezing drizzle/sleet/snow in the region tonight.

It’s complicated to explain how the temperatures in the atmosphere (as a whole) can all be below 32° and yet again we’re talking about the potential of some glazing. Remember a little of that goes a long ways.

The issue is getting snowflakes to actually form. To get that to happen you really need to have moisture in a favorable part of the atmosphere…especially around 10,000 feet or so. Data today indicates that we may have that moisture be there for a few hours this evening but it moves out rather quickly around 9-10PM or so…and we’re left with cold and moist air in the bottom 5-7,000 feet of the atmosphere BUT the “lift” to that same area of moisture is so weak that the formation of snowflakes is tough to come by. That leaves us with the wintry mix stuff that in and of itself may create slick road conditions again.

On a favorable note there is so much treatment on the roads that we have some margin for this to happen and not affect the main roads too severely. Can’t promise a rose garden tomorrow on the roads but it may not be terrible. Other pavement areas…sidewalks, parking lots, driveways etc may be much worse overnight once things get going.

Anytime there is the moisture back around 10,000 feet or so..we’ll switch back over to snow…without it…it’s that wintry mix stuff that is nasty in and of itself as we well know this winter. This isn’t a strong system. Snow amounts will probably be in the dusting to 1″ range for the KC Metro area…perhaps a high-side of 2″ but I think that is isolated at best at this point. Areas towards northern MO will have more favorable moisture in that critical zone so better snow production is likely towards and north of 36 highway…so 2-4″ is certainly doable up towards the IA border region.

This is what I showed this morning and I may tinker with it a bit for the evening shows…and I’ve updated the map this evening.

 

Next on the hit parade…

Round #3

This one moves in on Tuesday late day into Wednesday morning. Parents take note of the potential of school closings again on Wednesday!

This may be similar to what happened yesterday and it sort of looks like another 2-5+” type event. There are some differences that need to be written about however.

  1. I’m not sure this will be a fluffy type snow that accumulates as efficiently as yesterday’s did.
  2. The main part of the fast moving wave will be passing by towards the NW/W of KC…the issue there is that we need to watch for the dreaded fast moving dry slot in that situation. In a sense sort of like tonight. The dry slot strips away the moisture in the mid-levels that goes into efficient snow production and leaves you with less than optimal snow accumulations
  3. Should the wave that’s being ejected out out of the SW US dip in the jet stream be farther east…then we could see more snow locally.

Let me show you what I mean…

The bigger dip in the jet stream at 12AM Wednesday is well into the SW part of the country. This “dip” will send out waves…one coming through the Plains…that’s our snow-maker for later Tuesday. Notice though how far west it is compared to the KC area. In my mind that throws a yellow flag up.

Why? Because when those waves are that far west they typically have poorly modeled dry slots with them in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

4. Whatever happens may happen fast and furious again…so the snow “window” is not too long. Yesterday it really was less than 6 hours (mostly) and we ended up with solid 3-5″ or so…could be a repeat…

5. Watch out from another rush hour from #$%@ for Tuesday evening based on current timing.

6) IF things evolve a bit farther eastwards…and if things slow down a bit…we could see upside to the snow scenario

7) another system is possible later next week into the weekend…this may be the last one in this series…this would be round #4. I think something will happen BUT we may lose the cold air ahead of it…so we’ll see what precip types we’re fighting.

8) IF that 4th system is farther south of here we should see it slow down to accomplish that feat and it so it would be another weekend type event and IF it slows down…that could mean more wintry weather too.

Our feature photo comes in from Nattapong Assalee

Joe

 

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