Joe’s Weather World: More rain is coming and maybe a few flakes too! (FRI-3/29)

This month is certainly going out like a lion with a multi-day storm system affecting the region. Before I go on though I want to look back at yesterday’s forecast for a moment. When I was talking to Karli on the way to work…obviously we were sweating the afternoon rains coming and going…if only because of the Royals game. Any other time it would not be a high impact forecast. I was commenting to her that IF folks were to step back for a minute and realize that the situation that developed yesterday was 1st talked about a full week ago (granted at first mention my thought was that the AM would be the best rain chance) but then altered to tailgating and 1st pitch issues a couple of days later…it really was a remarkable forecast from so far out.

Even the night before when nothing existed nor would it exist for hours to come…we maintained the same approach/timing/effects which worked out almost to a tee. If you remember I talked about the “sinking” air that would come in behind the wave to get a couple of hours of dry time to develop…and that was perfect. I was sweating the 2 storms that went north and south (just barely) of the stadium early yesterday evening…but it was a tough forecast overall and I felt that we did a good/excellent job with it.

I bring that up only because yes we are terribly wrong sometimes…I wish we weren’t, but yesterday was a “win” for meteorologists I think.

  • Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with some drizzle/mist turning to showers and then occasional storms later today/tonight. Some locally heavy rains are possible later into tonight. Temperatures going nowhere…50° or below I think all day for the Metro.

Tonight: Some locally heavy rain/storms with a raw night coming…lows near 40°

Saturday: Some morning leftover rain>snowflakes possible then some clearing in the later PM…highs 40-45°

Sunday: Hard AM freeze…record is 17°…don’t think we get there…but lows will be 20-25°. Then better in the afternoon with highs well into the 40s with sunshine.

  • Discussion:

More rain is coming…but as is typical for this time of the year…some of these dreary days are to be expected…and today will be one of those days. A front is draped towards the south of the KC region…and this front marks the change between the chilly raw weather on top of the KC region and the milder air, and soon to be unstable air, towards the south of KC. Here is the 8AM map.

Note those NE winds blowing through the area…that is NOT a good look for much, if any, temperature rise today. We may go up a few degrees…but we’re on the struggle bus today for sure.

Now for areas farther south towards I-44…the temperatures are warmer (near 60° this morning) and the dew points are closer to, or above 50°. The air down there is going to get more unstable as the day moves along.

We’ll see how this comes together later today/tonight but there is a slight risk of severe weather down there.

Wind and hail are the primary threats. I’ll be keeping an eye on areas south of US 50 especially later today and tonight.

With that front draped towards southern MO…a surface storm will organize and come up along that front tonight and pass south of KC overnight into Saturday morning. The surface storm will organize in SE KS and move through the Lakes region towards midnight. This will increase the rain threats towards KC later today especially.

Then tonight as the colder air wraps into the region from the north and northwest…we’l gradually see temperatures drop off…probably into the mid>upper 30s towards daybreak. Aloft it will be getting colder tomorrow AM…perhaps enough to support some snowflakes…although what falls will melt on contact I think. There could be some grassy accumulations somewhere to the north…but it’s always worth watching.

Finally a few notes…all this moisture…not only here but elsewhere has eliminated most of any drought across most of the country.

I shared this information yesterday on the air…since October 1st…and in the period from October 1st through yesterday we’ve never had this much moisture in the 130 years of records in KC.

That’s interesting to me…and it should be to you too…because more rain is coming to finish off the month of March.

The rain we’ve had…and what’s coming has prompted Flash Flood Watches towards the south of KC in darker green with the lighter green color representing flood warnings. It should be noted that the expected rains won’t affect the MO River appreciably.

River levels will continue to come down for awhile it appears.

I don’t want to jinx things but there aren’t any big storms slated for the work week next week…there may be something next weekend to watch though.

Our feature photo comes from Trevor Vance, the grass professor out out the K…field looked beautiful yesterday…and it’s going to get another drink of water today…especially later on.


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