Joe’s Weather World: One humdinger of the storm later in the week (SUN-4/7)

Good Sunday morning…the rain last night was welcome from a timing perspective. You were able to do everything you wanted outside during what turned into a fabulous weather day…and last night was a good sleeping night with the rain falling and a few rumbles of thunder. I was also impressed by the amount of rain that came down. Many areas had at least 1/2″ with some close to 1″ or so…today there may still be a few isolated storms in the region overall but many should go through the day dry I think.

The big weather story is what’s coming in the WED>FRI time period. This storm is going to be a powerful one in the Plains…it’s precise impacts on our weather are still questionable but we do know that a LOT of warm air will be drawn into the region ahead of it and a LOT of cold air is coming behind it (gardener’s take note). In between all that there may be storms…snow…wind…and more wind.



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and mild with highs in the 70s. Maybe an isolated shower/storm in the middle of the afternoon

Tonight: Fair skies with some fog possible. Lows in the 45-50° range

Monday: Mostly sunny and warm with high well into the 70s

Tuesday: Sunny and warm with highs into the 70s



  • Discussion:

The weather blog is a funny thing…the number of people who read it is fascinating to me and their kindness when they run into me and tell me how they read the blog fascinates me. Yesterday I was out running some errands…ran into two-three nice folks who, to a T mentioned that they were big fans of the weather blog. What are the odds? It happens a lot…especially after this past winter and all the snow we had. I always comment…a darn weather blog.

Onwards…

There is a weak front…can’t really call it a cold front…but I guess is sort of is…moving this way today. It basically separates some higher moisture air (higher surface dew points) and drier surface air (lower surface dew points) in the Plains.

Here is the 8AM surface map…showing the the line of demarcation across the Plains states.

The blue line represents the split between the more prevalent gulf moisture and the drier Plains air coming into the central Plains.

That line and the drier Plains air will come eastwards today…and be right on top of the Metro towards about 4-6PM or so. Temperatures will be 70-75° or so…and there will be some instability out there. There could be a few isolated storms before the late afternoon is done but the coverage looks to be rather small at this point.

As I mentioned at the top of the blog…the next few days will be mild>warm overall.

Then we start paying attention to this.

There is a stream of moisture that you can plainly see out in the Pacific Ocean. IF you look carefully towards the left side you can see an upper level storm. That will go through various gyrations over the next couple of days and eject out towards the west coast by Monday night. What comes from that then will get stronger through the western US Tuesday into Wednesday and become a significant Plains storm Wednesday.

There are still questions about where exactly the storm at the surface organizes…

You can see the range of possibilities based off the EURO ensembles. These show ALL the various surface low positions (51 I think). The average is in SW KS…the map below is for 1PM Wednesday.

The 1AM Thursday…

and finally 1PM Thursday…

One thing to note about the last image..note a bunch of low positions towards the W and NW of the “ensemble” position? This is telling me there could be a farther W or NW track in future model runs (or at least to pay attention to this possibility). IF that happens there could be another slowdown in the timing of a strong Plains cold front moving through THU AM.

This is the main change from a few days ago when the front looked to arrive early THU…now it’s 6-12 hours later. This MAY mean we start THU with some sort of 12AM high or daybreak/morning high in the 60s before tanking…and fast towards the 30s in the evening. So temperatures are a bit of an issue for Thursday.

The cold air delivery is NOT an issue…at some point it comes in with a vengeance. The hard freeze potential for Friday AM…may now happen SAT AM because…

It’s possible that we have wrap-around clouds keeping temperatures FRI AM in the 30s…but also…yes…possible that there could be snowflakes FRI AM too…or earlier.9

Just going a few thousand feet up in the air…1AM Thursday morning (the temperatures are in °C. (21° is about 70°F)

then going forwards 24 hours to Friday 1AM.

-2°C is about 28°F…so we’re looking at about a 40+° drop above us…and the almost the same will occur at the surface.

So obviously this will be a BIG storm with BIG changes and lots of cold coming.

That profile above would support snowflakes IF there is anything falling from the sky. It may stay farther north and probably won’t accumulate except perhaps a bit on grassy surfaces in N MO…but obviously it’s something to watch for.

As far as we go…

  1. Strong warm air surge coming…IF things are bright enough on WED we could be near 80° with increasing winds
  2. Gulf moisture. This is sort of interesting because the surface moisture out there now (this morning) may be more than what comes in ahead of the storm. This is important, along with the timing of the front, in determining our severe weather threat situation when this transition occurs. The timing of the front on THU is in the morning and that is not a favorable time for severe weather in April at least. IF there is a low down (possible) and the front gets here in the PM and the colder air comes in later in the day…this can change markedly.
  3. Strong winds are likely at least THU>FRI…gusts to 40 MPH+ not out of the question. That is a LOT of air moving around this storm.
  4. Severe weather risk. Not to be discounted at this point for the region…again depending on the frontal timing on Thursday.
  5. Snow potential. This will get the attention…but right now it’s more of a curiousity thing in terms of what may fall from the sky as opposed to an impact thing.
  6. Freeze potential. Continues to be elevated when we clear out. That said there is another system sliding through that may give us clouds on SAT…we’ll see IF that affects the lows at all SAT AM.
  7. and if you want to really not be happy…the next system that may or may not follow the heels of this big storm MAY have cold air to work with…and that could be problematic NEXT weekend for the reasons that you could imagine.

So there is a lot happening…there is a no doubt trend to colder weather coming for THU> the 15th or so…

Our feature photo comes from ‎Savannah Whitesell‎

Joe

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