Joe’s Weather World: How KC is positioned for the massive Plains storm (TUE-4/9)

Good morning..this will be a shorter blog compared to yesterday sine I’m on a deadline of getting it all written and researched in about 40 minutes today. Overall there aren’t too many changes to the situation locally…this will be mostly a wind storm for the area as what rain we get locally won’t be overly heavy or last too long. Many may not even get a drop of rain or maybe just get some brief fast hitting showers from this whole thing. Everybody will get the wind though.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny this morning with a few clouds in the afternoon. It may not be as warm as yesterday but we’ll still be well into the 70s

Tonight: Increasing winds with with lows in the 50s

Wednesday: Windy…gusts to 40+MPH likely..and very warm too with lots of filtered sunshine. Highs near or above 80°

Wednesday night: Remaining very warm…with a few showers or brief passing storms possible. Lows remain in the 60s

Thursday: Falling temperatures all morning into the 40° range. Then clouds with some mist/drizzle possible. Windy with SW winds gusting to 30-35 MPH.



  • Discussion:

Yesterday’s high of 78° was the warmest day of the year so far. Tomorrow we may do better as a very warm air mass combined with some very strong wind stirring the air up helps to send temperatures soaring. This despite the veil of clouds that may be with us at times during the day.

This is all ahead of a soon to be massive Plains storm that will pass towards the NW of KC aloft on Thursday.

The system itself is just now coming onshore in the western US.

It’s not impressive. Look though what will happen over the next few days. Let’s go up to about 18,000 feet or so using one of our models that show the developing storm.

Look for the “U” that closes off into an upper level storm in the western Plains.

For time reference…00Z is 7PM…06Z is 1AM…12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM.

So this thing really gets wrapped up aloft…and interestingly it sort of taking roughly the same path of the “bomb cyclone” that moved through the Plains about a month ago. I might delve more into that in tomorrow’s blog.

At the surface this storm will develop from an area of low pressure coming through the Rockies.

Again this will really get together in KS on Wednesday afternoon/night.

The maps above are the surface features. The black lines represent lines of equal pressure or isobars. The storm will move through KS…into perhaps far NW MO then up through IA. Once the colder air hits on Thursday…it will linger for awhile.

Typically the NAM model handles these cold air intrusions wayyyy better than some other models.

Look at it’s forecast for 4AM THU…and see the contrast.

Near 70 east of KC to 30s west of KC…with lower 60s to 40s from east to west in the Metro. That is a moment in time though because by 10 AM…here we are.

and yet very little moisture is expected locally from this since the main features will be going towards the NW of KC and we get dry slotted at least aloft there is a dry slot. at the surface with the colder air rushing into the surface moisture that comes up from the south tomorrow into Thursday early AM…the colder air should squeeze the lower part of the atmosphere…and that means that moisture will cool and condense into clouds…with maybe a few areas of drizzle/sprinkles developing.

The main thing though from all this will be the wind.

About 5,000 feet above us tomorrow the winds will be around 55 MPH. The map below is for 4PM

Then at 1AM Thursday…wow! That’s almost 80 MPH winds above us…we may see 50+ winds at the surface tomorrow night. That will keep temperatures up into early Thursday before the front gets here!

and then by 4PM Thursday the colder air has rushed in and the winds above us, while not as strong are still close to 40 MPH.

So NOT a lot of precip from this…but yes to a LOT of wind from this. High wind warnings are possible for the area tomorrow night especially.

Near freezing or below weather is likely FRI and maybe SAT AM too.

We still need to watch Sunday carefully. There is a 2nd storm coming up and while this storm is getting the attention the 2nd system may have more impacts…rain at least and maybe something else that no one wants to think about right now…and it’s wintry.

OK that’s it for today…our feature photo comes from Amanda Lewis. Things are blossoming all over right now!

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Joe

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