Joe’s Weather World: Seeing the Sunday forest through the Thursday trees (WED-4/10)

Our developing storm system continues to mostly behave as expected. How about Denver? They were near 80° yesterday and are under a blizzard warning today. Other blizzard warnings are going to be be in effect for the Plains and the upper Midwest. This is going to a be a potentially historic blizzard for mid April up there. Ranchers/farmers are really going to be affected, especially the livestock. All this moisture on top of already saturated soils also doesn’t bode well for flooding concerns that may again grow over the next few weeks. Something else to watch.

Meanwhile, aside from the big winds today and tonight…and the dropping temperatures tomorrow…nothing dramatic is expected (from a storm standpoint) locally.

Then there is the issue of Sunday…and I do have concerns, as I’ve had for a couple of days. More on all that in the discussion

  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with a lot of filtered sunshine and increasing winds. Gusts may approach 40 MPH and a wind advisory is being hoisted for today. Highs 80-85° in the region. The strong winds will allow a LOT of atmospheric mixing and despite the clouds will allow the warm air above us to come to the surface getting us into the 80s

Tonight: Even windier with perhaps an isolated shower in the AM Thursday. Winds may gust to over 50 MPH with mild temperatures remaining in the 70s for the evening and near 70° into the wee hours of Thursday

Thursday: The colder air should come into the area towards/just after daybreak with falling temperatures near or just after daybreak from the 60s to the 40s…and we should stay closer to 50° or so for the day tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies afternoon skies. There may be a brief shower/sprinkle with the colder air in the region in the afternoon. Blustery again with 30+ MPH winds

Friday: Not too bad with highs back up to near 50°

  • Discussion:

So remember about 7-10 days ago when I was pointing out a storm off the coast of Asia…yup…this is that storm. It will deepen today…and really create the worst weather across the upper Midwest and the northern Plains. Snow…wind…rain…too much of all of it is likely up there. For us…it’s really a wind storm. 35-55 MPH winds are possible overnight…and then the front hits near daybreak.

Here is the latest position of the low pressure area…

The map above should auto-update.

As the storm moves up through KS today and tonight…storms are possible near the low pressure center and towards the east of there. It’s questionable how this all comes together but if there are any stronger to severe storms, odds are they would be more towards the NW of the KC region.

Hail/winds are the main threats…those storms would follow the mid level winds towards the NNE it appears and stay away from most/all of the viewing area.

Let’s use the HRRR model showing the developing storm system…

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…00Z is 7PM and 03Z is 10PM…etc.

For KC…with the lowering air pressure the winds really get going. I mentioned this in a tweet last night…

That’s pretty impressive.

I went back to look at the lowest air pressure when we had the bomb cyclone a month ago…in KC. We dropped to about 29.15″. This storm will take us down to 29.20″ or thereabouts. It won’t be as strong overall as the BC (bomb cyclone) but the low pressure area will be closer to KC this time through.

Up to the north of the region the snow/blizzard concerns are real and not good.

Some areas up towards the eastern part of SD may need a yard stick for this one. That is one impressive swath of heavy snow with a lot of winds too.

The folks from Pivotal Weather have a great overview map of ALL the different warnings/advisories that are out right now.

It’s a April Christmas tree.

Wind and snow mostly.

Let’s see what some of the other NWS offices are thinking for this storm.

Boy that Minneapolis/Twin Cities forecast is a nail biter…from under 1″ to almost 20″.

And with all that snow…40-55 MPH winds are possible.

So that is the main Plains storm.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t talk about a growing elephant in the room…and since that is still about 5 days away…I won’t delve too much into this YET. I’ve been sneaking in some mentions on the air and in the blog about it…and it’s time to at least open a discussion about Sunday.

So behind this main storm in the Plains over the next 48 hours is a secondary storm that will be coming in the Pacific NW tomorrow afternoon and heading into the Desert SW on Friday. It will then intensify over the weekend as it turns towards the NE and may well pass just south of KC early Sunday.

During the winter this would be a classic snowstorm track for KC.

During the middle of April it’s a bit trickier for obvious reasons. Temperatures.

Model data today shows that the atmosphere initially may be a bit too warm to support snow BUT IF the storm does indeed take this track to the south of KC…and it has to be almost perfect for this too happen…we could see a transition to snow. Again this relies on a few things namely that the atmosphere chills down because of the strong dynamics of the storm moving towards the NE near and north of the I-44 corridor.

The EURO model has been honking this for several days…the GFS has at times as well. I don’t want to get too involved with this yet on the air because of the set-up over the next 2 days…but in the blog…it’s a thing in the back of my mind right now.

It could be a MUCH bigger thing in about 2 days. IF this all plays out…the potential of one of those heavy wet snows will develop in the viewing area (somewhere). The only potential saving grace is that maybe the surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s for the event. The only way we get accumulating snow if if it really comes down hard.

Now some would say…hey…it’s been so warm…there’s no way we could get a big sticking snow here. Well to that I say…hello Denver, CO. It was almost 80° there yesterday.

So it can happen. Again from 5 days out…just like in the winter it’s worthy of a conversation right now…the 2nd storm though may be impressive and depending on the track…rain (if nothing else) is possible later Saturday night into Sunday.

The bottom line is from KC southwards towards the Lakes region…I’d be wary of this set-up.

Out of the 51 or so ensemble members of the EURO model…there are more than 20 that are supporting at least some snow falling. Again during April it has to fall hard to stick. There are 9 members out of about 51 that support the potential for at least 1″ of snow in KC (KCI).

Oh my goodness.

Our feature photo comes from Linda Sormanti Johns


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