Joe’s Weather World: Tracking Sunday snow risk (for some) + where’s the severe weather? (FRI-4/10)

It’s been an adventurous work week of weather in the Plains. The big storm is still spinning like crazy up across the upper Midwest. We’re still feeling it’s effects with the wind (not as bad as yesterday) and the chill. At least skies have cleared out for now. While this storm heads into far eastern Canada over the weekend…another system (storm #2) comes in on it’s heels. That one may have a wintry component to it as I’ve talked about for the last few days. Before you cancel your weekend plans though…do know that a good chunk of the weekend locally won’t be too bad…just cool by mid-April standards.

  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and cool with highs 50-55°. Winds will still be somewhat gusty to about 30 MPH and that will add a bit of bite to the air.

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly again with lows near 32°. Lighter winds though tonight.

Saturday: Starts sunny then we’ll see increasing PM clouds…overall not too bad with highs in the 50s again. Some rain is possible later in the evening.

Sunday: There may be some rain in the AM…especially from KC south and southeast and east. The issue is whether or not we mix in some snowflakes during the morning and that is still possible, mainly towards central MO though based on the overnight data and some accumulations to the snow are possible towards the east of KC. Some PM clearing and then a nice late afternoon with highs around 50° with some upside if clearing happens fast enough. Breezy too.

Monday>Tuesday: Warmer with highs in the 70s!

  • Discussion:

Over the last 24 hours there’s been some changes to the potential of snow. Yesterday’s PM data and the overnight data seems to be targeting areas off towards the east and southeast of KC for this potential. I can’t rule out some curiosity flakes locally but IF there’s sticking snow…chances favor areas outlined above. This would include areas from about Odessa to Columbia and from Chillicothe towards the southwest into the Clinton area. Tough to describe in this format.

This obviously will need to be watched and can only happen with certain conditions in the atmosphere.

  1. the track of the incoming storm has to be towards the SE/E of the blue box above. That will allow the atmosphere to chill down just enough to support snow making it to the ground. It should be snowing above us and off to the east…the the bottom few thousand feet have to be cold too!
  2. The surface temperatures need to drop to at least 34° or so. Anything higher and it will be some sort of wintry mix or mostly rain, even in the blue boxed area
  3. Whatever happens will probably happen before daybreak through about 10AM or so
  4. Accumulations are possible in that blue boxed area…perhaps on grassy surfaces and elevated roads. I don’t think temperatures will droop below 32° in that region outlined above…so the roads overall should be OK BUT IF it snows hard enough it could somewhat be impactful (slushy) on the roads too.
  5. The snow would occur at a good time of the morning for accumulations to at least be considered.
  6. See #1 again. If the track is farther south or farther east…this boxed area probably won’t work out…or may shift
  7. IF the track is farther to the NW…that would place KC more in the area of concern.

So there is a lot to consider for Sunday AM

The bulk of Saturday looks OK. Drier air from the N/NE will tend to slow any advancing rain coming up from the S and SW. At some point Saturday night or early Sunday though some rain is possible, especially from KC east and southeast.

The storm will be dropping into far SW Texas today

and then curling up towards southern MO tomorrow and Sunday AM. This track is a bit south of a favorable snow track for KC proper. IF that track shades farther north the Metro would obviously see something else more wintry.

It’s possible IF the track is farther south that we get nothing at all or something very light…in the rain department. See part of the whole deal is that the storm needs to generate enough heavy precip locally to get the air to chill down to support snowflakes all the way to the surface. A farther south track would not allow that to happen in the KC area.

So let’s keep an eye out for the track of the developing upper level storm…here is the latest NAM model.

Notice the “U” dip moving through the southern Plains then curling up. It’s close but there are also some indications on this mornings data that the storm sort of maxes out in strength towards the Branson area…which is a bit too far south for getting accumulating snow into KC. Again, and I want to keep reiterating…you can see how a 100 mile shift farther north will complicate our weather in the Metro area.

So here is  a look at a future radar forecast off the same NAM model…this would be for 10PM.

That’s a decent soaking rain towards the SW of KC. Note the few blue specks in SE KS…a sign that the atmosphere is cooling down.

Now towards 1AM Sunday…

More blue showing up towards the east of KC. This indicates at least a wintry mix possibility IF not a switch to wet snow.

Then by 4AM.

More indications of at least a wintry mix…especially east of KC and south too…

Then by 7AM.

IF it’s NOT snowing by then it probably won’t.

The data from today’s NAM is confirming the snow accumulation potential in the blue box that I started the blog with.

Again it’s really(!) going to have to snow hard to get the snow to stick…but the argument that it’s been too warm for sticking snow doesn’t fly. It just has to snow really hard and it will overwhelm whatever warmth there is left on the ground from the 50s on Saturday.

Onwards…and I’ll blog again tomorrow later in the AM with an update.

I mentioned severe weather as well in the title of the blog today. Over the upcoming weekend the bigger threats are going to be down towards the southern US. Actually there may be some bad tornadoes down there.

It could get pretty nasty down there…

Locally we’ve sort of dodged the bigger threats so far. Granted it’s only mid-April but even next week it doesn’t look overly concerning. There is another front coming on Wednesday that IF it slows down could create some bigger storms locally later that day…then beyond that I’m not seeing anything noteworthy at this point. We may be looking at a net below average type temperature regime for the 3rrd and maybe 4th week of April which could diminish the severe weather risks for a couple of weeks locally.

I won’t complain about that.

Our feature photo comes from Austin Hamilton up in IA…nice double rainbow from a few days ago.


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