Joe’s Weather World: One storm goes south…now watching Wednesday (SAT-4/13)

Good Saturday to you…a somewhat shorter blog today as it appears we’re going to have a pretty decent weekend in the KC area with clouds increasing today and a small chance of rain tomorrow morning before nicer weather moves during the afternoon. Overall IF you have some outdoor plans you should be in pretty good shape. I plan on playing a little golf this afternoon and take advantage of the lighter winds today. We’re watching this storm slide towards the south and southeast of the region. There will be another storm towards Wednesday that may pose some strong storm risks locally.



  • Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and cool with highs in the mid 50s. The persistent winds of the last few days are done for the day at least.

Tonight: Cloudy skies and breezy with lows in the 40° range

Sunday: Clouds with perhaps a few showers in the AM…better chances towards the east and southeast of KC…then clearing and pleasant with highs back into the mid 50s

Monday: Real nice with highs in the 70s



  • Discussion:

Maybe we’ve dodged the last snow bullet in KC for the season? There is another storm for the middle of the week that bears watching but that storm will have a lot of warm air in front of it…and I’m not sure the air behind it will be cold enough to support snow production this far south…from there we’re now in to the late part of April and it makes snow a MUCH tougher proposition to get locally at least.

This storm is going to pass towards the I-44 corridor…that is just too far south for us to worry about snow locally. It will spread a bunch of rain through southern MO though…

The new NAM model shows 1-2+” down there…

There could be some light showers/sprinkles on the far SE side of the KC area…but that will be a tight and sharp cut-off from the rain to the no rain SE of KC.

The snow threat is now more towards eastern MO than KC.

as well as up towards the central IL area.

So that bullet is being dodged mostly in the region.

Areas towards the southern US though have big issues with severe weather and this could be a bad tornado outbreak down there.

LA is VERY much under the gun today and if you know some folks down there who don’t keep up with the weather…it might be worthy of sending them a text message to make sure they’re aware of the potential…this will role though tonight into MS as well and then into the SE part of the country tomorrow. This would affect the Masters golf finish it appears and not in a good way.

A lot of parameters are favorable for some big and nasty tornadoes in the south today as severe weather season is starting to really ramp up in the US now…

After some nice weather Monday and Tuesday our next storm will come this way on Wednesday into Thursday. WE’re going to really warm up again ahead of it. There is a weak front that may or may not change the wind direction for awhile on Tuesday before lifting back to the north. The NAM model has it but I’m not confident that front will get this far south on Tuesday morning. IF it does it may trim the highs back on Tuesday a bit…if it doesn’t we may pop into the 80° range on Tuesday

Assuming it doesn’t make it this far south…then the Wednesday storm will have more heat and more moisture to come in to. That, combined with a cold front will mean thunderstorms. There should be a cap in place for awhile on Wednesday and that will need to be broken but there should be a stout disturbance coming towards the Plains later in the day…we’ll see how the timing on all this plays out. Going up to about 18,000 feet you can clearly see the “dip” in the pattern for early Wednesday evening.

There are going to be some rather strong winds above us during the evening on Wednesday so it certainly won’t take much to create some strong to severe fast moving storms locally. Worth filing away in the back of your mind. This may be our first real severe weather set-up.

The folks from SPC are paying attention to it as well.

Some cooler weather will come in behind that storm for Thursday and maybe Friday too.

It’s going to be another busy week I think talking about the weather.

Our feature photo comes from Sandra Cox out in Leeton, MO.

A lot of blogs this week…I think I’ll take tomorrow off from the blog and pick things up on Monday afternoon.

Have a great weekend.

Joe

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