Joe’s Weather World: Watching Wednesday potential and more rain (MON-4/15)

Good afternoon. A nice and breezy next 36 hours coming for the KC area. Today is mild and tomorrow will be even warmer. Maybe not 84° like the other day but we should be near 80° and the winds will be going pretty good. There is another storm coming for Wednesday and I know you’re starting to hear about the severe weather risks…and they should be mentioned but it’s NOT worth at this point getting overly concerned about because there are several things that don’t “look” right to me right now concerning the Wednesday situation. By “look right” I’m referring to a bigger type outbreak.



  • Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and breezy. Mild too with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and windy with highs 75-80°. Gusts to 30 MPH possible

Wednesday: Variable clouds and a chance of rain/storms. Highs in the 70s. Gusts to 25 MPH possible



  • Discussion:

Yesterday was an interesting weather day…regionally and nationally. Regionally there was a snowstorm for parts of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The remnants of the snow are still out there but melting quickly.

There were flakes through central MO yesterday morning into NE MO. That was the storm that we were watching for a few days. In the end the impacts in KC were minimal and aside from a coolish afternoon Saturday because of the clouds…it was a good weekend around here.

Nationally there was quite a bit of severe weather. The biggest number of severe weather reports were yesterday with tons of reports of damaging winds. There were also more than a few tornado reports…especially on Saturday.

Here were the reports from yesterday alone.

An aside…

Like many I was watching the Masters Golf coverage. It was incredible theater and even non-golfers were sort of drawn into this. For the non-golfer though you may not know that the starting times were altered based on the threat of nasty storms coming towards Augusta, GA in the afternoon. Augusta, if you don’t know, is well east of Atlanta.

So the decision was to move tee times to the morning.

Without this decision…all based on a forecast…yesterday may not have happened the way it did. There wouldn’t been a ___ hour delay…or perhaps the round may have been pushed to today…or perhaps not finished until today…or any other outcome…but NOT the way things went. Again this was all based on a forecast. The PGA contracts with a private weather company called DTN. They actually send meteorologist to many of these bigger events to have onsite. Sometimes it’s boring I think…sometimes it can be very stressful…remember they can be responsible for getting 10s of thousands of customers/patrons off the course. That doesn’t happen in the course of a few minutes…

I reached out to them about how neat it would be from a weather enterprise scenario about the decision making that went into that process yesterday. It would be a great conference presentation.

Onwards…

I alluded to the snow situation that was towards the east of KC over the weekend.

Over the weekend here was the swath of snow across the Midwest.

Meanwhile before the snow hit there it it the upper Midwest.

Some pretty beefy totals up there.

That of course means more eventual moisture into the soils and the Rivers. An area obviously that has seen too much already with more coming.

Locally we actually have sort of dried out a pinch. Now that with spring winds have been going and the sun angle is getting higher, combined with the greening terrain, the needs for moisture are increasing. We could actually use a bit of rain for the grass if nothing else.

Wednesday may get us there…and Thursday may add some extra to it as wetter weather comes into the Plains.

This is the storm threat on Wednesday.

It’s off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.

This storm will come ashore and drop into the southern US…the track of that part of the storm isn’t very favorable for us to have a lot of severe weather. A second separate system will pass north of KC through Wednesday and Thursday. the 2nd system will drag a cold front though at some point later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

So this is a very disjointed set-up and while thunderstorms certainly are possible off and on on Wednesday how strong those storms get remain to be seen locally. It’s NOT the greatest set-up for severe weather at this point locally. Odds favor areas more towards OK/TX and potentially up into IA closer to the actual surface lows. We’re sort of in no mans land on Wednesday regarding strong instability…sunshine…and a more primed atmosphere.

It’s worth watching and we’ll update you again tomorrow on the blog. The GFS model does have a bit more instability later in the day but that instability crumbles in the evening around these parts

Again worth watching and the rain chances certainly are there if nothing else.

We may be setting up for another pretty decent weekend around here with a warming trend once again.

Our feature photo comes from ‎Annette Keeter…

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Notice: you are using an outdated browser. Microsoft does not recommend using IE as your default browser. Some features on this website, like video and images, might not work properly. For the best experience, please upgrade your browser.