Joe’s Weather World: The rain awaits and a soggy week coming (FRI-4/26)
Nice day out there with temperatures that will eventually get up to near seasonal levels…close to 70° this afternoon. Overall if you have plans for the weekend you should be in pretty good shape…yes there will be rain but my thought process is the vast majority of the daytime hours of the weekend will be dry and the rain chances will be mostly at night. Their is the potential of heavier rains heading into early Monday for parts of the area…and that risk will be with is into next week…probably through Wednesday and maybe Thursday too.
Today: Sunny this morning with partly cloudy skies this afternoon. There may be a few sprinkles later today up north. Highs well into the 60s. Not too much wind.
Tonight: Increasing clouds with some brief rains coming before daybreak. Perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as well. Lows closer to 50°
Saturday: Whatever rain there is early in the morning exits fast…overall nice but getting windy. Highs into the 70° area but falling in the afternoon behind a cold front that moves through. Winds will increase to 30 MPH or so in the afternoon as well so a bit of a blustery afternoon at least.
Sunday: Watch for morning frost(!). Then gradual increasing clouds and cool with highs to near 60°. By night there will be developing showers/storms overnight into Monday morning. Some locally heavy rain is possible.
No real changes to the forecast needed for next week. The data continues to point towards rain. There will be dry times obviously…Monday afternoon looks drier. Tuesday overall looks wet then additional rain chances come this way Wednesday and perhaps Thursday as well. This will probably run it’s course by Friday of next week.
Rain amounts will exceed 2″ in many areas…from there there is potential for double or triple these amounts in some areas. Where the max areas are though will be determined as the week unfolds but we continue to get strong signals in the models about the potential…but at this point it’s just potential.
The overall pattern though is still very suggestive of this…and that’s what you key on. A front waffling around the region (especially towards the south of the KC area). A series of weak waves coming out of the SW part of the country bring moisture over that front and an atmosphere that will, at times, have about twice (or more) it’s average amount of moisture for late April all spell the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
So the weather set-up is certainly there…that can’t be denied but again as a front wavers around…there will be wavering areas of localized heavy rainfall…and where those areas set-up…can’t be determined right now with any real precision. Why?
What happens is that when there is a bunch of rain/storms over the course of 6+ hours in these types of situations…those rain/storms will shove a front south…sometimes by 50 miles…sometimes by 100+ miles…that’s important. When that happens then when the winds above the front blow over the front…it set’s up the next batch of heavier rains in a different location. IF there is a possible better outcome for the KC area…the path would be for us to get one batch of heavier rains…then the front would get a shove farther south…and perhaps from there we get the heavier rains setting up more towards I-44 and we get some lighter stuff. That certainly is on the table.
Our model data will have a tough time with all this. Precipitation is actually the hardest thing for model accuracy in many cases. What happens above the surface to a large extent is an “easier” forecast from a model standpoint in many cases…the actual creation of precipitation is still a tough issue sometimes in model physics. Sometimes the models will create wayyyy to much convection…and it messes up all the data into the future for that model run…including what happens above the surface.
So this is what we’re left with..looking towards the various runs of the same model and using an ensemble approach. The thought process with that is that by using 20 or 50 runs of a model with different physics and different initializations you get a better forecast. This process is called ensemble forecasting and for a period of 5-10 days…it’s usually a better approach.
So this is what we have…
Note how some of those “members” in the above chart show over 7″ of rain over the course of the next 10 days or so…again “potential” is something that needs to be kept in mind and that’s why I’ve been bullish on this for the last few days on the blog and on the air. Stalled or wavering fronts with winds above blowing over the front and disturbances being kicked out and flying from the SW to the NE is a recipe that cant be ignored in my mind.
Our feature photo comes from Laura Crawford…