Joe’s Weather World: A brief respite before more active weather again (MON-4/29)

After a stormy night with more lightning and heavy rain overall it will be a quieter day in the area today before we set up for round #3 overnight into Tuesday. The storms late yesterday afternoon were surprising in their potency, in terms of hail production, and it shows the strength of the low level jet stream coming over the front to the south. That front is now closer to the KC area and will be the key to the forecast for round #3 early Tuesday. The northside got the heaviest rains as some 1-2″ totals were reported up there. Doppler estimates may be a bit hail contaminated but I’ll get to them in the discussion. This wavering front will be important because it may get a shove southwards tomorrow and that could be a severe weather set-up later tomorrow afternoon, especially south and southeast of KC. It’s a murky set-up at this point but something to be aware of.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mainly cloudy skies with a few light showers possible south of I-70. Nothing too heavy. Temperatures today are sort of tricky but I’ll go with highs 60-65° or so. IF there is some sunshine then we could see temperatures a few degrees warmer. Not much wind at all today.

Tonight: Storms will increase in coverage again with locally heavy rains. Lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Morning storms will wane as the morning goes…there will be locally heavy rains again and some areas could see 1-3″ of rain from the overnight and morning activity. How the activity falls apart and it’s push to a front that will be nearby will affect the weather tomorrow afternoon. We’ll play that as it develops. Highs tomorrow in the 60s

Wednesday: Again the better chances are AM with somewhat drier conditions PM then more storms/rain possible Wednesday night. Highs in the 60s



  • Discussion:

So I won’t bother with all the rain totals at this point. These have been written about and blogged about for about a week now…no real changes…2-6″+ totals are still expected and with the storms yesterday on the north side things are on their way already. I was looking at some of the rain totals on the NE side of the Metro towards the Liberty area around the Shoal Creek Golf Course and we’re up to over 2″ and this is before the “main” show gets going tonight and for the next few days.

Doppler indications are possible contaminated by some hail and there was a good deal of it up there yesterday.

But fair to say we’re seen widespread 1/2″>2″ totals so far except for areas SE of the Metro.

The hail production yesterday from the north land storms was prolific…

Today we’re sort of in no mans land. We’ve been worked over by the overnight storms…and the front is displaced a bit to the south.

The 7AM surface map shows a dangling stationary front just sort of there across MO into OK.

There is a push southwards across the Panhandles region whereas the push to the front in MO is essentially little to none right now.

With the front dangling nearby and with the winds above the front increasing again overnight…another recipe for rain/storms will develop in the region.

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…00Z is 7PM…03Z is 10PM and 06Z is 1AM.

If you look at the blog between now and the evening…you’ll probably see renewed storms developing overnight.

The question is how do the overnight storms muddle the set-up for tomorrow when some guidance shows instability increasing tomorrow PM. That’s important because IF the front is close by…and with the building instability out there…renewed PM storms Tuesday would be possible. The issue there is that the atmosphere will be conducive for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.

The winds especially tomorrow will be favorable for severe weather. When I look a the forecast soundings tomorrow afternoon…and again there is a lot to be figured out tomorrow based on what happens tonight and tomorrow AM…you can’t help but notice how the winds turn from the SE to the WSW as you go up in height and increase in speed as well. This is a classic example of “shear”. Thunderstorms love this type of shear because it gives them the ability to rotate…severe weather is usually not too far behind…whether it be hail or something more significant.

We MAY have both components of shear that we look for for stronger storms/supercells…speed and directional shear.

The two together are pretty important.

Now the issue is will the storms have the surface instability to work with and that is still to be determined and will have a lot to do with how long the storms linger tomorrow AM. The faster they move out…the closer that front may be to us again after perhaps getting a southwards push overnight.

We’ll consider tonight and tomorrow round #3…

Round #4 may come tomorrow night into Wednesday.

Then there may be a final round #5 that comes into Thursday morning. That would be the possible rain to start the day on Thursday.

With all these rounds coming and for the reasons I’ve laid out over the last few blogs…there is a lot of atmospheric moisture that will be tapped by these storms over the next few days…the NWS has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to encompass most of the viewing area from the Metro southwards. Those are the darker green counties highlighted below.

As far as the severe weather risk goes tomorrow…

You can see how a farther south adjustment is very possible with a more displaced front. Again tomorrow’s set-up is very conditional on how the events overnight and tomorrow morning readjust the atmosphere regionally. It’s worth paying attention too right now and we’ll just see where we are tomorrow.

So let’s deal with round #3 tonight and we’ll be aware of round #4 tomorrow PM for the potential of severe weather somewhere in the region.

The feature photo comes from Brad Miller…of the hail up towards Liberty.

Joe

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