Joe’s Weather World: A bit of a lull today…but not done with the rain (TUE-5/7)

The rainy grind continues in the region with more rain out there as I start this weather blog today. The heaviest has shifted away from the KC area and the atmosphere is a chaotic mess right now of various areas of rains and upper level swirls that will weaken somewhat today. Clouds are going to be an issue and IF those clouds thin we may be able to warm up somewhat as the day moves along. Then again IF the clouds don’t thin…and with not much wind today…temperatures will be struggling.

There is still concern for additional rains tonight and tomorrow including the potential for severe weather but that aspect remains to be seen because of a cold front that will move through the area…



  • Forecast:

Today: Cloudy skies with an occasional shower or two. Nothing too heavy expected right now. Highs well into the mid 60s…some upside IF we thin the clouds.

Tonight: Another chance of rain developing but nothing about that is totally set in stone. I think that could happen later rather than earlier at this point. Lows tonight near 60°

Wednesday: This forecast will depend on the speed of a cold front coming through odds favor this will happen at night. Once that happens…the risk of stronger storms will end. Morning rain/clouds may play a role in how unstable we are or aren’t later in the day…we could have stronger storms in the evening or at night before the front. Highs in the 70s

Thursday: Chilly with clouds…highs only in the 50s



  • Discussion:

Sort of a muddy weather forecast…figuratively and literally out there. I’m not very confident about tonight or tomorrow locally. We should get more rain…likely heavy as well.

Last night there were some real strong storms south and southwest of the Metro towards Miami Co and westwards again. Some amazing “shelf” clouds were sent in…including this one

So what is a “shelf” cloud. actually they’re not that unusual. A few years ago we seemed to have a year filled with them with all sorts of dramatic shelf clouds through the region.

They’re formed when rain cooled air starts rushing out of a thunderstorm. They’re attached to the main cumulonimbus cloud (thunderstorm cloud) and take on some rather ominous looks. As the cloud moves over you you feel the cooler rush of air/wind from the storm itself. As the rain cooled air rushes out of the storm into the warmer and moist air ahead of it…that “heavier” cold air lifts the warmer air (lighter) upwards and you get the sloping effect that is common. The cloud motions underneath the shelf cloud are dramatic and some can get confused and think that there are tornadoes. They are dramatic to watch and time-lapse though.

Onwards…

The severe weather reports were mainly hail and wind related from storms that fired in northern KS and moved towards the SE…

You can sort of see the movement of the storms by looking at the reports. There were some larger hail reports mixed in out there and stronger winds. That Franklin/Miami Co storm had winds near, if not above, 80 MPH.

There were tornadoes towards SW KS as well.

Today we’re sort of in no-mans land…there is a boundary around that will need to be watched.

We’re sort of capped but I can’t rule out something today firing up…at this point it doesn’t look widespread.

Meanwhile bigger storms are expected towards the TX Panhandle region…and those may be prolific tornado producers down there.

Those storms will then move off towards the east or ENE overnight. Then we need to see how those storms affect us…potentially with more late night or early AM rains tomorrow.

How will all that mess up the atmosphere tomorrow with a fast moving cold front trying to push in as the day moves along? That would be a potential key to our severe weather risk for Wednesday.

So by no means are we done with the severe weather risk…or the heavy rain threat. A flash flood watch remains through early Thursday AM.

Some areas yesterday had over 2″ of rain…and it came fast and furious.

Our feature photo comes from Alicia Richey‎

Joe

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