Joe’s Weather World: More rain coming but an OK weekend (FRI-5/10)

Yesterday was the 71st day out of 129 days with at least some moisture officially in KC. KCI had a trace of rain earlier in the morning and there were some light showers/sprinkles out there in the late afternoon hours. We may not get through tonight without additional rains coming this way. Maybe not for all but from KC southwards the rain chances go up towards 12AM or so. Overall the weekend won’t be too bad, but it will be cooler than average once again. This wet month of May continues and with all the wet weather we’re running 3.2 degrees below average. When this stuff eventually starts to turn to thick humidity it’s going to get nasty around here from the muggy standpoint.



  • Forecast: 

Today: Increasing clouds and cool with highs 60-65°

Tonight: Rain chances increase later tonight into Saturday morning. Lows in the upper 40s

Saturday: Brief morning showers ending then variable clouds and cool with highs in the lower 60s. There may be some areas only in the 50s tomorrow

Sunday: Not terrible for Mother’s Day…highs well into the 60s. The only issue could be some isolated PM showers/storms out there but we’ll deal with this over the weekend



  • Discussion:

It was a cold morning…as a matter of fact we casually set a record low this morning of 36°. The record was 37° set in 1989. I thought there was a remote chance we could get close IF we cleared out but I’m surprised we actually broke the record!

The clear skies won’t last for too long…

So today ends in “Y” and I’m not sure why today will be any different from all the other days this month without getting some rain in the region. The only issue is the timing…will it get here before 12AM or right afterwards.

It won’t be much…odds favor under 1/10″ for most of KC…especially on the south side…but there should be some 1/4″ totals a bit farther south of KC when things wind down towards mid morning Saturday.

So there are two systems that bear watching…one coming out of the SW part of the country tonight into daybreak tomorrow and another one coming out of Canada on Sunday. Right now the 1st system looks pretty minor and may bring somewhat more rains towards the south of the KC Metro…that would be overnight. So let’s get radar in here so that you could be updated…probably don’t need to worry about that till later this evening…

Here is the short range model…the HRRR to sort of give you an idea of what’s coming.

For timing purposes….18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM…06Z is 1AM and 12Z is 7AM

That would be system #1…now system #2 is way up in Canada right now and you can see both systems better as we go up to about 18,000 feet or so and track the areas of “vorticity”. Ahead of these areas (shown in red) you get rising air motions…that leads to clouds sometimes and also IF there are other parameters coming together…rain/snow.

So you can see what comes our way overnight into tomorrow AM and then the 2nd system dropping out of Canada and sliding towards the I-80 corridor. Note how a piece of that 2nd system could venture into N MO.

I wonder about that on Sunday afternoon because essentially that “U” dip represents a pocket of colder air aloft. Now IF we can warm up on Sunday into the 60s with this pocket of colder air aloft off towards the NE of KC…there may be some showers/storms popping up in the heat of the afternoon somewhere out there…especially NE of KC. Something to watch. It’s May and it seems as if we have a hair trigger right now to getting rain around these parts.

Beyond that…next week overall looks OK…we may be setting up for something more significant NEXT weekend…from a rain standpoint and from a severe weather standpoint. Long ways off but the models are certainly showing a more traditional severe weather set-up in the Plains region. Now the worst of this may be farther west of the KC area and we get rain and not much else here…but it’s something to start paying some attention too. Again this will be for NEXT weekend (maybe more next Sunday for the risk as opposed to Saturday) but obviously that can change quite a bit between now and later next week.

Our feature photo comes from Jordan John Wesley…

Doubtful for a blog tomorrow and we’ll see about one on Sunday depending on the weather situation.

Joe

 

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