Joe’s Weather World: Shocking! Maybe some “real” spring this week! (SUN-5/12)

Our wet spring of 2019 continues and so does the cooler weather as well. This May (so far) is an eye-popping 5° below average and today will add a bit more to the negative side. Another day where highs may struggle to get above 65° and maybe in some areas above 60°. Rain is also possible at any time today as radar this morning is showing some rain out there and more is possible this afternoon. There is good news coming though…from a rain standpoint and temperature standpoint.



  • Forecast:

Today: Occasional showers/storms today with lots of clouds. Temperatures will struggle in the 60s but drop into the 50s with rain.

Tonight: Rain ends then variable clouds with lows by daybreak 40-45° (chilly)

Tomorrow: A better day…with milder temperatures and highs well into the 60s

Tuesday: Warmer with highs into the 80° range…a bit breezy as well.



  • Discussion:

It’s been a wet spring so far…it’s been wetter but the constant rain, especially this month has gotten rather annoying for outdoor plans. The soils are saturated and really won’t hold much more water, so everything goes into runoff. Look at all the moisture since 3/1

To update the above chart…so far we’ve had .11″ today and more is likely so we’ve moved up from 20th…to at least 19th. So it goes.

What’s interesting is when breaking down that data a bit more and looking at the frequency of precipitation of at least .01″ or more…including today (since 3/1) we’ve had 25 days of .01″ or more. How does that stack up in history…all these days with at least .01″ at least through the end of May?

 

 

So through the 12th…we’ve had 25…the record is 51…and you can see to the bottom number above is 35…so we’re about 7 days away from getting to the bottom of the above chart…in other words it’s been wetter (from a frequency standpoint) in 2013…15…16…and 17! The number of wet spring days seems to be increasing over the last 10-ish years overall. Here is another way of looking at it.

Again remember the data for 2019 is incomplete compared to the data for the previous years that takes into account the entire month of May. Our 10 year average is 32 days…so in the end we’re going to be near that which seems counter-intuitive to what many “think” right now at least with all these days of rain.

This week we’ll actually get a bit of a break most days.

There may be some scattered activity on Tuesday or Wednesday but a lot of coverage at this point is a push. Temperatures though this week will come back to near or even above average starting on Tuesday (finally).

The EURO model seems to have a good grasp of the potential over the next 10 days or so…

So finally things are going to warm-up rather nicely…

Now as we head into next weekend…the brief drying trend may wind down…there is likely more severe weather setting up towards the western and southern Plains next Saturday and/or Sunday. I’m still not convinced this will be a significant issue for us locally…rain maybe…lots of clouds…possible…but the severe parameters and set-ups may be more traditional much farther west/southwest of KC than loser to home. In the end we may end up with more residual and leftover rains than being the focus for severe weather in eastern KS and western MO. A lot of speculation in this though. In the end though next weekend may be wet at times.

What I think the bottom line is…after a pretty quiet work week thought the 17th or so…things will start getting wetter again heading into the last 10 days of the month…we’re not done with the wet spring weather…not even close.

Cooper Smith has the feature photo today of some of the hail that moved in the Metro this morning…

Joe

 

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