Weather Aware: Storms likely with strong wind, lightning, hail

Joe’s Weather World: Finally real spring…oh and humidity too! (MON-5/13)

Hope you had a nice weekend…the weather didn’t really cooperate though. Yesterday was a weird one with intervals of sunshine and rain…and hail…and lightning…and thunder and intervals of more sunshine. A colder pocket of air aloft allowed the storms/showers to develop quickly. Every time the sun cam out…temperatures popped to near 60° and that would set the atmosphere into motion. When the surface is near 60° and aloft at close to 10,000 feet or so it’s around 22° or so…that’s a pretty good change in temperatures from the ground upwards and with moisture and rising air…you got all sorts of convective showers to form. Over the next few days we’re going to transition to more spring weather…with perhaps a touch of some summer heat and humidity as well.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant…highs near 70°

Tonight: Fair skies and cool with lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Perhaps a few isolated showers/storms otherwise variable clouds and warmer with highs near 80°

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with highs well into the 70s to near 80° or so. Small morning rain chances.



  • Discussion:

Overall this work week will be remembered by some as the week that spring weather really kicks in. Temperatures so far this month are running almost 5.5° below average…this is our 17th coldest start to the month of May.

It was actually substantially colder about 6 years ago…during May of 1013.

What’s sort of interesting is the contrast between May 2018 and May 2019…last May there were 17 days with highs 85° or higher…so far this May…0. So far the warmest day we’ve had is 78° this month. We have hit 85°…once…back on 4/21

So an interesting contrast although we may get an 85° or two reading this week.

Overall the main focus of the week will be watching for severe weather…and while we’re not exactly going to be in the favorable location for bigger storms (at this point) areas towards the western Plains and southern Plains will be. This should be an active late severe weather week for that region.

Odds are you’re going to see a lot of flashy graphics from various sources showing the threats…but based on the data today…these threats may be more confined towards central/western KS southwards through OK and western TX. Storms there may be pretty big but when they develop…they will be fully mature west of the region it appears…and while it will be wet at times over the weekend locally (increasing confidence in this) the strength of the storms may be maxed out well west or southwest of KC…so that we get mostly just rain from them in the late night hours.

Again this is based on the data that I’m looking out today and for the last few days. As a matter of fact the SPC sort of sees this as well…highlighting a better chance west of the region over the weekend.

Here is a preliminary outline of potential on Friday…

Because of upper level winds…what develops out there would tend to move almost due northwards…or NNEwards…favoring areas farther west of KC.

Then on Saturday the odds favor areas farther south…this would be a day to watch for more local impacts whether it be just rain or something a bit stronger.

Whatever develops down there would tend to move towards our region…perhaps in a weakened state but still this is going to mean more rain around here over the weekend. The good news is that at least by then the soils, which a extremely saturated now, will have the opportunity to dry out…at leas the top soil will.

Another aspect of the upcoming week be increasing humidity. Persistent south winds will start sending the dew points into the 60s…and you’re feel that especially later in the week. Odds favor highs near 85° or so…with dew points into the 60s…that A/C will be kicking back on I think (if you don’t run it already because of allergies).

There is so much soil moisture out there…that whether it be from south winds bring in Gulf moisture or just evaporation from the soils…this is going to turn into thicker humidity over the next month or so every so often.

Of note as well..it what’s going on down towards Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico…lots of smoke in the air down there. There have been some significant fires in Mexico for awhile and it’s loaded up the air down south with a ton of smoke. I do wonder as we continue to have a persistent southerly air fetch…if that smoke will start coming farther north into the Plains.

Take a look at the satellite pics from down there…notice all the smoke (hazy look) towards the Gulf Of Mexico and Mexico as well?

So bad in Mexico City that the government down there is advising residents to stay inside because of all the smoke.

Not set in stone…but perhaps areas down south get in on that…towards the southern Plains region at least. Not sure if it will make it to us though at this point…but I’ll be watching.

Of note as well is what may happen out west next week…

When I see that “weirdness” potential…it really makes me wonder if NEXT week is more the severe weather threat situation for the KC area than this week.

Then there’s this…the amounts of rain that will be entering the MO River Basin over the next week…and this may be low in places in the northern Plains…

Not going to allow the MO River to see any significant drops it appears.

So the takeaway for the week is welcome back Spring…let’s watch the weekend…odds are it won’t be the best…and there will be some rain in the region again.

Our feature photo comes from Genia The Chief on twitter (@murphfan03) from the Warsaw area.

Joe

 

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