Joe’s Weather World: Back to flooding concerns (FRI-5/24)

Well the thicker air arrived today and it’s going to fell rather muggy for the next few days. That moisture is going to get turned into more rain as well. The holiday weekend as a whole isn’t terrible but it certainly isn’t great either. There will be hours of dry weather mixed in with the rain chances every so often. It’s possible that huge chunks of a day…maybe Monday…are in pretty good shape. So don’t immediately cancel all those plans based on any forecast.

One of the many issues with all this is that one day of rain/storms may affect the next day of rain and storms…which then affects the next day…etc. So we really take this day by day and while everyone wants hour by hour specifics…that’s nearly impossible from a few days away at least. So far my forecast thoughts of a few showers this early morning…then a better chance of storms on the PM hours seems about right.



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and muggy with highs near 80° or so. Storms will again be possible from after lunchtime onwards…especially later this afternoon into tonight. Some severe weather is possible but the main theme to things is the flooding potential again overnight into early Saturday.

Tonight: The potential for additional heavy rains exists…1-4″ in spots.

Saturday: Rain chances linger through the 1st part of the day…then there should be some dry time in the PM. Highs near 80°. Another chance of late night storms with heavy rains

Sunday: Morning storms end…drier in the PM. Highs near 80°.

Monday: Actually we may be drier overall. Let’s keep a 30% chance going though right now. Highs 80-85°



  • Discussion:

So much moisture…in the ground and in the atmosphere.

Last night NW MO was an area of heavy rains and thunderstorms with a handful of warnings issued but I didn’t see any actual verification of severe weather…

The dew points are now elevated…and watch this become more and more of an issue heading through the next few weeks…there is just so much moisture in the soil that as it tries to evaporate it will send up a lot of moisture into the air. Just in the last 60 days…

and compared to average in the last 60 days…

Now there are parts of North MO that actually aren’t in as bad a shape right now…then again they got some good rains last night per doppler radar…

Some 2″ totals in the NW part of MO.

Today the focus is on new storms that should try and develop this afternoon and this evening. The storms will be moving from the SSW to the NNE…and the issue is the eastwards translation will be slow…

That means we get training rains…and that again raises the specter of flooding.

via Pivotal Weather

Just a sloppy mess out there.

Data this morning show at atmosphere loaded with moisture…and tonight with storms in the region tapping into all this moisture…that means heavy rains. Look at the following map showing Precipitable Water or PW as we refer to it. This shows moisture content as you go from the ground upwards…and the more moisture in the atmosphere the easier we get heavier rains.

That’s well over 1.5″ of available moisture and as storms “train” from the SW to the NE and tap into that moisture…they turn into very efficient rain producers.

So it appears the main threats later today will be wind/hail transitioning to heavy rains into the evening and overnight. So once again a flash flood watch is in effect for the region.

Model data this morning is showing 1-5″ of rain potential…and it looks about right because of the repeated rounds of storms later today. Where the axis of heaviest rains sets up remains to be seen…

A continuous series of disturbances will come up from the southern Plains triggering all this…not only tonight but tomorrow night too although the issue tomorrow night into Sunday morning may be a MCS or Mesoscale Convective System that comes across KS and moves through in the wee hours of Sunday AM.

It’s possible we get winds with that too…although it might be just another batch of heavy rains that move through to start Sunday morning. The MCS will be coming eastbound into possibly less favored environment for maintaining it’s strength but in this pattern when it wants to rain…it wants to rain.

That hopefully will stabilize us for the rest of Sunday…so that may work out for plans outdoors.

Monday is sort of weird in that we may again have some morning chances but maybe we get through more of the day with drier weather. Let’s play that one by ear though

I wanted to go back to the tornadoes from the other night in case you didn’t watch the news yesterday for the ratings…

Through this morning the NWS had rated 3 EF3 tornadoes on the MO side and they were looking at other potential touchdowns.

 

Pretty impressive and their going to add to these counts today…especially from the Springfield region of responsibility.

Let’s end the blog with this…big difference this year!

Our feature photo comes from Cristy VanDyke

I really need to take a day or two off from the blog…so I may try at one point over the weekend…hopefully the weather will cooperate at some point.

Joe

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