Good afternoon! As you’re reading this, you’ve probably heard about the severe weather threat for this afternoon and evening.
If not, here’s the deal: we’ve got a Tornado Watch for the metro area until 10 p.m. and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas in far northern MO and KS. We’ve had a few severe thunderstorm warnings already, but our main concern is the tornado potential later on this evening.
Looking at the radar over the last few hours, we’ve seen a recent shift in development to the SW. This is going to be the area we watch closely for initial development which includes the possibility of tornadoes, hail, and straightline winds.
We’ve got an incredible amount of moisture out there right now (you can tell that just by stepping outside.) That, coupled with a warm front that’s draped over our area gives us concerns that the development of tornadoes could be favorable over the next 3-4 hours.
A few breaks in the clouds in eastern KS is also something we’re keeping a close eye on.
Expect some of these initial cells to be discrete and away from other thunderstorm development. This will be the area to watch, as these storms tend to have rotation and strong updrafts.
The timeline above syncs well with what we’re seeing on radar so far.
More storms work their way from the SW to the NE and as they interact with that front, this could provide a further trigger for some of these storms to rotate.
I would expect a timeline for the metro between 5-8 p.m., with storms moving off to the east over the last couple of hours before our threat diminishes by sunset.
We’re under a Tornado Watch, so that means conditions are favorable for tornadoes.
I would stress that’s not the ONLY severe threat that remains. Flash flooding is a very high concern. Straightline wind gusts and large hail, even up to golf ball size, is possible.
Tornado threat is still there. Our 10% tornado threat for the metro actually doesn’t sound like much. (Wouldn’t you scoff at a 10% chance of rain?) That’s actually fairly significant for us, so I’d like you to take it a little more seriously.
Remain Weather Aware this afternoon and evening, and we’ll keep you updated on the latest threats!