Good morning! I know it’d be nice if we didn’t have to show you one of these maps for a good long while, but we’ve got it back in the queue yet again for Saturday, June 1. We’re under a slight/enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon. The silver lining to this is that we’ve seen the enhanced risk shift slightly to the SE since the latest update overnight.
The best time for severe weather to develop looks to be after 3PM, but the window only carries us to around sunset before the front fully pushes through. Expect it to be warm and muggy in the meantime.
Notice the clue lines coming in from the north/northwest above. These indicate a weak frontal boundary that’s going to sag south and southeast to interact with a plume of moisture coming in from the southwest. This will cause of line of showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. One way to tell if you’re in the clear this afternoon? Just pay attention to the wind direction. If you’ve already seen your breeze shift to the N/NW, you’re likely in the clear the rest of the evening.
Flooding is not my biggest concern with these storms, for once. Sure, they’ll produce bursts of heavy rain, but I don’t think they’re heading over the same area over and over like they have been. Small hail and winds in excess of 60 mph are going to be the main threats with any stronger storms that develop this afternoon.
Share this info with anyone out and about this afternoon, especially those heading out on the lake, specifically the Lake of the Ozarks, as they're a bit more susceptible to the development of severe weather.