Joe’s Weather World: More storm chances almost all week (MON-6/3)

This is going to be one of those weird weeks where it could rain every day…while yet some may not see rain for several days. When it does rain there may be locally heavy downpours due to a ton of atmospheric moisture in the air…and that will aggravate the ongoing flood situation in the region. There is also a tropical connection that may develop as well this week as some tropical moisture comes northwards from the southern US. Rain chances will come and go but it won’t rain all the time, obviously.



  • Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and warm with highs near 80°

Tonight: There will be developing storm chances later tonight with lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Early AM chances…then a lull then questionable PM chances depending on instability. Highs near 80°

Wednesday: Variable clouds and muggier with highs 80-85° or so



  • Discussion:

Here is a cool story…for a couple of days last week I was in contact with Reed Timmer about his research launching rocket probes into tornadic circulations to observe weather conditions. He was on the Douglas/Leavenworth Co storm and launched a rocket into it. He gets data back but typically would lose the rocket. IF he can find the rocket though the is more high resolution data on some computer chihps that he then can see what it shows.

The rocket was carried in the circulation into MO…that he pretty much knew. But the rocket itself is less than 12″ or so long…and there is a LOT of terrain in NW MO…so what are the odds?

Here’s Regan Porters story…

Hopefully Reed avoids our area for a long time...

The weather pattern is starting to show some glimpses of summer but at the same time it's not quite there yet. One thing that is going to be there this week is moisture...lots of it. Higher dew points on the ground making it feel muggier...and a lot of atmospheric moisture above us. So let's start there...

Take a look at the precipitable water or as we say the PW that is down towards the western Gulf of Mexico. This product shows the moisture in the atmosphere as a whole. More moisture increases the ability increases for storms to produces heavier rains in an easier fashion. The 1st map is for later today...

Now Wednesday AM

and finally Thursday...

Maybe the thickest moisture...2"+ skirts the region to the south...but still...a swollen atmosphere.

So the moisture is there...now we need triggers and that's the tough part of the rain chances this week...

We do have a trigger later in the week...as an upper level system will be coming out of the SW part of the USA...that is good for later in the week and until that passes...maybe later in the weekend...the storm chances will be there.

Now before that gets here there will be a series of very weak waves coming from the Rockies into the Plains. We can see the set-up at least...but the smaller scale waves don't exist and won't until new thunderstorm clusters develop into Thursday at least. Those clusters will create their own little waves that will traverse the Plains and increase our storm chances. Odds favor a lot of this activity to happen more towards the overnight and AM hours with lots of residual clouds around the area that will gradually thin out as the day moves along...so temperature forecasts ae going to be changeable.

As will rain chances from day to day. So bear with us this week. Specifics will be a tough commodity to come by from more than a day out.

As far as rain amounts go from now into the weekend...there will be pretty widespread 1-4" totals I think. For some most of that could happen in one day...for others it will be a combination of days to get there and since the atmosphere will be pretty darn juicy...I wouldn't be surprised IF there are higher totals somewhere out there on a localized basis.

There are no maps that I have confidence in in terms of specific locations of the max rains...although areas towards I-44 may see even more rain than us...here is the NWS forecast for the next 5 days...

As far as tomorrow goes...the SPC does have us in a slight risk...they're being very tentative in their discussion about it and I agree with their "iffiness" .

Winds and hail would be the main threats with this...

Here are a couple of other tidbits...concerning the tornadoes last week. Check this out!

Also the flooding situation isn't a lot better but the Rivers are slowly coming back down...at least for now.

Speaking of water...I believe the MO River at Waverly (March 2019) and Napolean broke their 2007 record over the past weekend for crests. The MO River at KC was their 11th highest crest and their highest since 1993. There are 10 other higher crests from way back in the day (1840s > 1950s). The #1 crest though was 1993 at over 48 feet. This weekend it got to 36.7+ feet.

 

Our feature photo comes from Amy Templeton of the smokey sun from the other day...it appears a lot of the smoke has finally moved away...

OK that's it for today...I'm giving you a heads up that I'll be gone later in the week for a long weekend...I may try and get a round of golf in tomorrow AM...so there may not be a blog tomorrow...we'll see if the weather cooperates.

Joe

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