Joe’s Weather World: Plenty of storm opportunities (TUE-6/4)

Lots of clouds to start our Tuesday today…with some scattered storms, mostly NE of the KC Metro area. Overall today won’t be a terrible day…but additional storms may affect at least some of you later today and tonight. Again not all will get storms every day…some will and some won’t but who does get them can expect more heavy rains, if nothing else.



  • Forecast: PM Update

Today: Variable clouds with more sunshine this afternoon and highs in the low>mid 80s

Tonight: Not much expected with perhaps an isolated overnight stormLows in the 60s

Wednesday: Pretty much ditto but hotter with highs near 90° with PM storm chances after 4PM especially from KC southwards

Thursday: Not as hot with more storm chances…highs in the 80s



  • Discussion

So not a lot of change from the thought yesterday…more rain chances but not every day for every person. Some of you won’t get a drop of rain others will see 1-3″ of rain from a storm if it forms and dumps on your community. The winds in the atmosphere are pretty light…nothing to really move the storms along…so as we saw yesterday…down towards the SW of KC and out towards Lawrence…you can get 1″ without blinking and some had 2+” as storms rained themselves out.

Another aspect of this is the way the storms send out various outflows…which then can turn into new storms…and so on and so on. Impossible to forecast really…and that’s why the broad brush is needed on this stuff for the next few days.

Here’s radar…

The morning short term models actually aren’t all that impressive for later today…let’s see if that changes with a lot of instability that will be around…the issue is if there are any other triggers…previous boundaries left over from yesterday for example, that can focus this instability. Here is the updated HRRR model…this should update for you every couple of hours.

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…0Z is 7PM and 03Z is 10PM.

The overarching issue though is an upper level storm that is in the western USA. You can see the “U” shape on the NAM model…and notice over the next few days as it gradually comes into the southern Plains. This will send weak little waves into heat and instability…with surface dew points well into the 60s, if not 70°+

Until we get rid of that thing…sometime over the weekend as it moves towards the east of the State Line region…we have to at least keep a storm chance going every day.

Again this down NOT mean it will rain on your community EVERY day…

This obviously won’t help the flooding situation. It may not worsen it but it won’t help. Another 1-4″ of rain is likely in the region through Saturday.

So sort of muddled really but certainly not perfectly dry out there over the next few days at least.

Our feature photo comes from Sarah Beth of the thunderstorm clouds out towards Lenexa over the past weekend.

Joe

 

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