Joe’s Weather World: Not dry but not that bad for a while (WED-6/12)

Happy Wednesday as a few waves moves through the region over the next several days…there is still more rain coming but amounts should be pretty typical for mid June…and some will get it while others don’t. Rain amounts last night and this morning were in the under 1/2″ range for most of the KC area with some higher totals up north and southwest of the Metro.



  • Forecast:

Today: Becoming sunny this morning then partly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the 70s. There may be some isolated showers/storms re-fire after 3PM or so with the potential of some localized heavy rain and maybe some hail as well. Windy as well with gusts to 25+ mph

Tonight: Storms fade then clearing and chilly with lows by daybreak in the 45-50° range. The record low is 47° set in 1985 and this is doable with lighter winds

Tomorrow: Top 10 Weather Day…with highs back into the 70s

Friday: Morning chances return…the partly cloudy and mild with highs back into the 70s



  • Discussion:

A front will slide across the region today and start bring in lower dew points into the area. That is always welcome during the month of June…there is also a pocket of colder air above us coming through…and during June with the highest sun angle and some heating…with cooler air aloft…the air can rise easily…and once it rises it usually doesn’t stop for awhile as the warmer air bubbles go into the colder air aloft.

That creates billowy clouds…and that is what I expect to see this afternoon. As these billowy clouds grow more and more upwards…they produce rain and thunderstorms…and since the air aloft drops below 32° below 10,000 feet or so…it’s not too hard to get some hail from some of the stronger updrafts…so that is the issue this afternoon.

These types of storms fade with the setting sun…or within a few hours of it at least…and that too should be the case this evening setting up a cool Thursday morning start and a nice afternoon.

The cooler air will start to move away (aloft) Friday AM and as the winds above us start to bring in the warmer air again…in that transition we could see some morning storms in the region…with perhaps some scattered PM storms Friday.

Saturday AM another chance as the somewhat hotter air moves into the area…bit overall it won’t be a terrible day with AM and evening chances of storms…and warmer overall weather. Highs may pop into the 85-90° range.

On that note…big differences this year compared to last year for temperatures since May 1st especially. We had a lot of heat in the region last May and June. We saw drought conditions rapidly develop in parts of the region as June wore on and the temperatures were well above average too.

Not the case this May/June. We’re still waiting for the 1st 90° day and we’ll wait a while longer I think.

For example…last year we had 40 days with highs 80° or above from Jan 1st>June 11th. That is crazy high only outdone by what happened in 1962 with 41 days.

Last year we had already had 12 days with highs 90° or above from Jan 1st > June 11th. That lofty number had happened 2 other times and trailed 1934 with 17 days already.

Well so far this year…80°+ days: 19 (the lowest is 6 in 1904) and we’ve yet to get to 90°. Here is a look at the # of 80°+ days to start out a year…

Obviously the cool pattern this spring is playing a role in all this…take a look at the last 60 days of average temperature departures…

Not crazy cool but enough…

During this time of the year…with such green terrain out there it does affect the surface temperatures. During drought conditions when the land turns brown and/or dormant and we bake out the soils…it’s easier for the temperatures to go up a bit higher. The opposite holds true as well…and with additional rains coming over the next 10 days…maybe not crazy amounts…but enough to keep things pretty green heading into the end of the month…it will be tough to get any locking in heat for awhile.

This crazy weather obviously is affecting the farmers and what they’re trying to get into the ground and emerge.

as far as the MO River goes…here is some information about where it may be going in the short term at least.

The overnight EURO is starting to get a somewhat wetter look…although not crazy wet. Again we average about 1 1/4″ of rain a week right now…so this isn’t out of the realm…but I have been noticing an increase in the atmospheric moisture progged in the I-70 region (off and on) for the next couple of weeks…that means that when it does rain there could be more efficient rain maker storms out there leading to some higher totals.

Our feature photo comes from Wade Welch of some clouds that you may see this afternoon.

See you tomorrow on the blog.

Joe

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