Joe’s Weather World: Perfect then not so perfect (THU-6/13)

Well we missed the record today with a morning low of 51° up at KCI. There were some mid 40s out there this morning though…and that is well below average…while dry now…more rain is in the forecast…perhaps as early as tomorrow as the moisture starts to return towards the region over the next few days…add in a slow moving front and that means there is the potential for rain over the weekend…and it may linger into Father’s Day.



  • Forecast:

Today: Perfect with highs well into the 70s

Tonight: A great evening with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Storm chances develop in the morning…and may linger off and on during the day. Highs in the 70s

Saturday: Hotter with some AM rain chances then evening/overnight chances too. Highs well into the 80s

Sunday: Starting to get worried that it may not be perfectly dry. There may at least be a chance in the morning hours. Highs near 80°



  • Discussion

We’re sort of weird set-up into the weekend where we’re not specifically being targeted for rain BUT what happens around us will be an influence on the rain chances around here.

Not today though…today is nearly perfect. Not a lot of wind…cool start and a nice mild finish to the afternoon…and the weather looks great tonight as well.

Tomorrow has the potential of being dry BUT I have my concerns…overnight tonight storms should be organizing and moving eastbound. These storms will survive into the early AM hours…and moisture increases in the Plains and low level winds above the surface feed that moisture into the storms moving eastbound. So the storms will be approaching eastern KS tomorrow morning.

As the storms move towards the KS area…they may start weakening…the issue is how fast they weaken before getting here which in turn will determine the rain chance in the KC area…but the chance will be there in the morning at least through lunch…maybe not for all but at least for some.

Then there will be other chances on Saturday morning…and perhaps Saturday night BUT the chance on Saturday night is tied more to a weak front that will be towards the NW of KC…we’ll see how that plays out…then on Sunday IF that front is around with a couple of disturbances moving through…I get worried that rain may be an issue at some point during the day again.

It’s a pattern that is not really dry but by the same token doesn’t scream widespread rain right now BUT we’re not that far away from some decent rains somewhere around the area…and where those rains target remains to be seen.

As I like to say…the pattern is “messy”. Messy patterns aren’t very predictable hour by hour…you see how it could rain…now it’s a matter of who sees the rain and where the heavier rains set up.

With the atmosphere having a good deal of moisture in it…the potential of locally heavier rains is certainly there too.

It was about last year at this time that we were starting to see an expansion of a “flash” drought that was overtaking parts of the region. Remember how hot it was…and many areas were starting to miss out on the rains…with the growing vegetation getting very thirsty as this was happening. It was a bad combination.

This year…let’s just say things are different.

The only area of the country that has drought issues is the SE and they’re tarting to see more and more rain. There are a few other areas scattered around but overall that is a pretty clean drought report.

Our pattern though for the next 10+ days…isn’t a dry one…little disturbances will be working their way through the Plains region and that means rain/storm opportunities every so often.

That’s it for today…iffy blog chances tomorrow because I have a golf tournament, weather permitting, 1st thing in the morning.

Our feature photo comes from Susan Kedigh…from Urich, MO of the storms from yesterday afternoon.

Joe

 

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