Joe’s Weather World: We may not be done with severe weather threats (WED-6/19)

Not exactly the prettiest of days out there today…but as I was stressing yesterday it’s not the type of day to cancel all your outdoor plans…there will be plenty of dry time mixed in with occasional showers/storms every so often. The decent part of the day is that there won’t be a lot of heat out there…highs should remain below average with temperatures in the mid 70s this afternoon. We will heat up over the next few days…the degree of that heat though will be determined by storm timing…sunshine…frontal positions and remnant clouds from various waves moving through the Plains.

Oh and at the bottom of this blog I’ve linked to the latest podcast I did with Trevor Vance of the Royals…it was a great 30 minute discussion about how weather affects what he does (keeping the field at the K so nice and green).

  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and muggy with highs in the 70s…some showers/storms are possible at any time. Just sort of a blah day

Tonight: Drying out and clearing up…some fog is likely too in the AM Thursday. Lows in the 60-65°

Thursday: Partly cloudy and warmer with highs near 85°. Storms are possible towards evening or overnight. Those need to be watched for the potential of severe weather especially across NW MO

Friday: Tricky day depending on what happens later Thursday with the storms…could be a hot day though with highs well into the 80s.

  • Discussion:

It’s not unusual for severe weather risks to continue over the summer months…usually though the risks are more tied to winds/hail as the winds in the atmosphere start to lighten up…storms pop and collapse and generate strong straight line winds. On rare occasion there could be a tornado or two scattered about the region.

This season…with the intense summer heat not yet establishing itself and the cooler weather overall in the Plains…I have this feeling that there will be other opportunities for additional severe weather risks…maybe even tornadoes in the viewing area before we settle into summer (which starts on Friday).

There is a strong wave coming through the Plains this weekend that needs to be watched. The timing may not work out for severe weather locally but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves with that prospect. Waves are waves and if they’re timed right with the building heat and humidity you can still get some volatile set-ups.

Tomorrow a weak cold front will be trying to get towards KS/MO towards evening…but will be weakening as it moves towards the east. The threat of storms will develop towards the later afternoon hours across NE especially.

What happens to those storms from there though gets to be the forecast issue. The should move eastbound and perhaps SEwards as well and as they do so they actually may be entering a more favorable environment for tornado formation across NW MO especially. Something to pay attention too Thursday evening at least.

Then how far south do those storms get? Do those storms get into the KC region…or do they stay up towards the north. IF they make it towards us…does that mess up the potential building heat for Friday. Heat that if unchecked, could support the 1st 90° day locally. So that is what we’ll try and figure out over the next 36 hours or so.

Then that front will sort of wash out…and a new one will then develop later Friday and try to move towards us on Saturday (again it can focus some pretty hot air on top of us…and muggy air too). That front could also light up with storms at some point later Saturday or Saturday night. That front could create new storms as well. With the heat in place…severe weather would be possible as well at some point over the weekend. What’s unknown is whether we’ll be a target of this or will it be more towards the west and NW of the Metro.

So we’re juggling a few balls over the next few days.

So it goes…but again don’t let down your guard regarding severe weather risks over the next few days and the next couple of weeks. There are signs that a ridge aloft may try and build in next week…and that would reduce the severe weather risks locally to finish the month of June.

Finally the other day I did a podcast with my friend Trevor Vance from the Royals. You will see him taking care of the field out at the K and as you would imagine his job is directly connected to the weather…and it’s complicated for him sometimes to maintain the pristine field conditions…especially when all sorts of things happen on the field including concerts…game winning and playoff winning celebrations etc. Anyway it was a fun conversation…feel free to listen and if you’re a Royals fan you’ll enjoy it even more!

Our feature photo comes from Zach Gimpelson from the great clouds on Saturday in the region.


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