Joe’s Weather World: Someone is going to get a lot of rain (THU-6/20)

While the day started with bright sunshine clouds are quickly coming this way from the northwest…and we’re moving into a perilous time for rain chance timing and totals through Sunday. Various disturbances created when storms are formed in the Plains are moving or going to be moving around and/or through the region through Sunday…it HAS to rain with this set up…and it may rain a LOT in some areas…but trying to time the rain and who gets the most is impossible right now. So it goes as we head towards the 1st day of summer in KC (Friday).



  • Forecast:

Today: Increasing clouds and warmer with highs into the low>mid 80s today. There may even be some showers this morning, especially on the KS side as a disturbance races towards the SE

Tonight: Warm and muggier. we’ll be watching for any storms in NW MO or NE KS trying to form…that’s iffy but IF they get together or (better chance) if a disturbance comes through KS it may bring rain/storms to the region well after 12AM

Friday: Storms possible in the AM (gusty wind potential)…then clearing in the PM…highs well into the 80s and getting pretty muggy.

Saturday: Iffy AM chances…better night chances (those storms may be severe) with hot and humid conditions. Highs closer to 90°

Sunday: Could be a stormy and iffy day with highs backing off into the 80s



  • Discussion:

As I mentioned to start this blog and I’ve mentioned this week…I just don’t see how with the set-up we’re evolving to…it doesn’t rain. It has too. There are wayyy too many things happening in the atmosphere for us to NOT get rain.

The issue is where and when…and that issue is tough. My confidence is higher chances are for later Saturday evening into Sunday AM. Beyond that…Sunday during the day is my 2nd highest confidence thought. Until then…good luck.

Heck radar this morning is showing a disturbance in northern KS moving towards the SE…

So despite the bright sunshine as I write this blog…it’s about to get pretty cloudy out there and there may be some showers/sprinkles in KS…and maybe close to home before lunch today (that will be a surprise from the forecast last night).

Then later today a NEW disturbance will be born from thunderstorms that have yet to form in Colorado and the western Plains region. Where this tracks will be a key to the weather here tomorrow. Tracking a disturbance that really won’t exist till sunset tonight…good luck with that!

It appears though that IF this happens…the wave will track through northern KS and into NE. As it does so a rather significant low level jet stream will be developing before daybreak Friday…and it’s pointing right at us in the AM. This is where there is all sorts of potential for storms developing or at least maintaining themselves as they move through the Plains.

The low level winds above the surface…some 5,000 feet up will be going at close to 45-55 MPH (as forecast off the NAM model).

So IF the storms are coming this way…moisture will be feeding into them..then there is the issue of whether or not the storms through some sort of outflow boundary southwards…which absolutely can happen. Outflow boundaries are like mini cold fronts…so it’s possible this boundary can be pushed south while the winds above the boundary are blowing from the south to the north. This ALL creates lift…and it increases our storm chances Friday AM…with maybe some severe weather risk and also a heavy rain risk.

We may try and do that again later Friday night into early Saturday as well.

Here is the short term HRRR model…

For timing purposes…18Z is 1PM…0Z is 7PM…06Z is 1AM and 12Z is 7AM tomorrow.

Tomorrow by the way is the 1st day of summer.

Of note is that the SPC has gone a bit crazy with their “slight” risks of severe weather for KC proper today…right now I just don’t see it. Maybe tomorrow AM…but I’m not too excited about the prospects for today at least.

So IF we have some rain cooled and worked over air on us tomorrow…it may be tough to really heat up to near 90°. Then again IF the storms aren’t around in the morning hours we could heat up later in the afternoon.

Then on Saturday storms are most likely towards evening and overnight. These storms will be developing on the KS side and coming eastbound. There severe risk will be there…perhaps higher out west where the storms initially form but winds/hail could be an issue closer to home later Saturday night into early Sunday AM.

Sunday whatever boundary is around may allow for off and on storms to be an issue through the day…

We should see a pattern change towards Monday and I think most of the next work week will be drier overall.

Until then…the potential for heavy rains will be increasing…the issue is WHO sees the heaviest rains…and that question can’t be answered confidently right now for any one spot…2-5″ is certainly possible from Friday>Sunday night…but where this sets up is a question in my mind right now and since what happens one day cold influence the other…well you can see why I’m not confident in any one location getting the heaviest rains.

By the way…noticed this for July…and I don’t disagree…temperatures…

Rain…

The feature photo is from Tracy Kramer…down towards Paola.

I’ll see you tonight on Fox 4 News at 5/6/9/10

Joe

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