Joe’s Weather World: Storms this weekend but next week is drier (FRI-6/21)

Welcome to the 1st day of summer in KC…as we close the books on Spring…we finishing the last few hours of Spring with heavy thunderstorms rumbling through the region. More storms are likely over the weekend as well…so the 1st couple of days of summer look wet and warm…then we’re going to dry out…and perhaps dry out for awhile as a more summer-ish pattern settles into the region.



  • Forecast:

Today: More storms are possible before lunch then we should be drying out. Clouds will slowly thin this afternoon and how much sunshine we get today will be a factor in the temperatures. We could heat up well into the 80s with steamy conditions developing later today and tonight.

Tonight: At this point I don’t think we’ll get the thunderstorms again in the Metro…the better chances of that happening may be farther to the north towards and north of 36 highway. Lows tonight in the 70s…sultry.

Saturday: Hot and humid with highs approaching 90°. The day looks dry though

Saturday night: New storms will threaten the area along with additional severe weather threats…winds/hail being the main issues. Lows in the 60s

Sunday: Still expect sort of an iffy day depending on what happens on Saturday. Overall temperatures may only be around 80° with off/on storms in the region.



  • Discussion:

Well the storms came in exactly when I said they would come in…and what’s interesting is that even last night before I went to bed at around 1AM or so…there were still issues about the storms making it towards KC at least in the short term model data. They blew through though at the exact time I forecast them too…and now (as of this writing) we wait on a 2nd line…we’ll see how well that holds together coming into worked over atmosphere of the 1st wave. As I type this though…during the 8AM hour…they seem to be holding their own.

After this 2nd wave comes through…we should settle down for the back half of the afternoon as we try and warm up…

The morning surface map is a bit chaotic but I wanted to point out the thick and juicy dew points towards the south of the Metro.

That is some ripe air…and it will be coming northbound later today into Saturday.

Along with that ripe air…the lower part of the atmosphere will be getting hotter…so we’ll challenge 90°.

So with all that heat and a front that will be moving closer to us…storms are going to fire up later in the day tomorrow. Storms then should come towards KC tomorrow evening and tomorrow night…these storms may be severe as well.

Sunday will then be a somewhat iffy day since the front is still to the west of the area…it probably won’t rain all day BUT additional storms will be possible into the evening at least until this front can move through the region which won’t be till early Monday AM.

Next week does look to be more of a hot humid and drier week…maybe some typical PM storms in VERY random fashion but take a look at this…the 7 day rain forecast off the EURO model…this would be from roughly Sunday night>next weekend…

Now it’s tough to stay perfectly dry still…especially considering the wet pattern that has existed since last fall…so I don’t think we’ll be totally rain free…but there aren’t too many identifiable features right now that will create storms in the region for the next work week. What will be interesting is how strong the ”ridge” builds northwards…the farther north the lessor rain chance…IF it doesn’t build in as strong…rain chances may redevelop.

So there is a lot happening over the next 2-3 days…and it appears this will be the bulk of the rain for the rest of the month…and perhaps into early July as well

Our feature photo comes from Brad Tucker out in Shawnee…of some of the wind damage…there’s a lot of tree limbs down in the region leading to some power outages.

Joe

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