Joe’s Weather World: The atmosphere is a chaotic mess (SAT-6/22)

So did you know that today we lose 1 minute of daylight. Yes the long descent to the first day of winter has begun. With that said…it’s going to be very summer-ish around here for awhile…that means we’re still fighting storms and temperature forecasts…both of which are perilous right now.

Yesterday the big complex that moved through the area in the morning messed up the atmosphere so much (not uncommon) that it left a rain cooled air mass on top of the area. we struggled to hit 80°. Not that far away though…Emporia was 90° and Wichita was nipping at 100°. Dew points were obnoxious towards the southwest of KC as well with heat index values closer to 105° in spots. Today we’re sort of fighting the hotter air mass and what’s left of the rain cooled air.



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and hotter with highs into the mid>upper 80s

Tonight: Storms are likely with the risk of severe weather…hail/winds are the main threats it appears at this point. Lows down into the 60s

Sunday: Periods of storms are likely but it shouldn’t rain all day long. Highs in the 80° range

Monday: Should be settled and pleasant with highs in the lower 80s



  • Discussion:

I wanted to start this blog with a look back to yesterday…and the range of high temperatures through the region…

The map is a chaotic mess again this morning.

There is cooler air across the Plains towards the NW of KC into NE and western KS…there is hot and humid air across the southern Plains…and we’re sort of in no mans land right now.

The latest satellite pictures are showing some nice clearing moving through the region.

So we’re going to heat up this afternoon…well into the 80s…and with dew points in the 70s we should be VERY unstable later today.

Now the issue is a trigger for storms…and the front to the west of the region will be a trigger out there. What about us? Well it’s tough to imagine we go through the night dry. Whatever forms west of the region will in time have to get to us…not exactly sure when that happens though…my thoughts are later in the evening.

I was tweeting yesterday about how miserable the model data has been lately with these convective situations. All over the place…

The atmosphere around us will be VERY unstable…we will be capped to a large extent for awhile but that cap really hasn’t been preventing the convection at this point over the last few days…whatever lift is out there seems to be doing the job to get storms going. Of note as well are various small scale areas of “vorticity” moving through the region…these too can enhance lift and get storms to pop.

My thoughts right now are that storms may refire later today and this evening in hap hazard fashion especially north of KC. Then more storms come together towards the west of the KC area and move eastbound. Those will impact us..again later this evening…after 9PM or so.

The thing is the surface map at 11AM still shows the warm front south of KC…

South of that front the dew points are crazy high. North of that their more typical of late June. The short range HRRR model brings this front up to us later this afternoon…sort of makes sense with the sunshine out now…

Soooo if the front is towards I-70 later today…the higher chance of late afternoon storms should be north of KC (I think) and with the cold front coming east (slowly)…storms should fire towards east central KS this evening and move towards us tonight.

That’s what I have in mind…and I’m sure Mother Nature will throw something different at me.

Here is the short range HRRR model. It’s done pretty poorly this week but at least it’s something.

For timing…18Z is 1PM…21Z is 4PM…00Z is 7PM and 03Z is 10PM etc.

The SPC has us in an area of enhanced risk of severe weather…

Wind and hail are the main threats…I do get concerned about a possible quick spin-up somewhere with that warm front lurking north of KC later today (if it’s there that is).

The other issue is the flooding…mostly localized but there is a ton of moisture in the atmosphere and the storms won’t exactly be flying through…so watch for that as well.

Finally if you haven’t heard my latest podcast…this was with Trevor Vance from the Royals. He’s responsible for keeping things beautiful out there…we had a great chat about the challenges he faces.

OK the feature photo is from Brent Murphy out in Marshall, MO yesterday. Big ole shelf cloud!

Joe

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