Joe’s Weather World: Morning storms…a humidity break…then nasty heat (WED-7/10)

Well the storms in eastern KS moving into the area may be our last gasp of raindrops for awhile around these parts. It’s very humid out there this morning…dew points are in upper 70s which is about as muggy a dew point as we’ve had so far this season. At KCI…the dew point is 77° which I believe has happened once before in late June…so it’s thick out there.

After the storms moves through…we’re going to see a break in the heat and the humidity for a couple of days…then over the weekend the heat comes back with a dew point return towards Sunday into early next week.



  • Forecast:

Today: Morning storms/rain ending then variable clouds. Temperatures today won’t be as hot as yesterday because of the complex coming through this morning. Highs may only be in the 80s…hotter south.

Tonight: Clearing out with a dew point break…meaning it will feel more comfortable…lows in the mid 60s

Tomorrow: For the middle of July…all things considered…not too bad for summer with highs in the mid 80s and dew points 60-65°. That’s pretty good for KC in July!

Friday: A pinch hotter (seasonable) but still a check on the nasty humidity with highs in the upper 80s



  • Discussion:

Let’s start with the radar…

The storms will produce some locally heavy rains…the worst may be along or north of the I-70 corridor where wind gusts may approach 60 MPH…

There is quite a bit of instability out there this morning…not surprising.

Meanwhile the air behind this is more comfortable…here is the 8AM surface map…note the dew points in green. Note what’s happening across N KS and NE…there are dew points in the 50s and 60s…that air is coming our way tonight especially. So the dew points will be a nice story for a couple of days…just a more comfortable feel to the summer weather in the region.

It will start to feel muggier later in the weekend.

Hotter weather comes back as well…so far this year we’ve maxed out at 93°…we may do better than that on Sunday and Monday.

Beyond that there are questions and it revolves around what is happening in the Gulf Of Mexico. We’ve had a bit of fun talking about the “zombie” storm for the last couple of nights…why?

Well of you haven’t checked in on the blog for a few days…this potential Gulf system…that is looking more likely by the hour…was originally created from clusters of thunderstorms on the 3rd that were moving through KS…this turned into a full on disturbance in western MO on the 4th (remember all that rain) then it meandered and produced more rain through the TN Valley before turning into the SE part of the country and now has moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

Now there are still question about how all this will come together and when.

From the TPC…

“A broad low pressure area located over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida,
is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected
to form late today or Thursday while the low moves slowly westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon. This system could produce storm surge and tropical-
storm- or hurricane-force winds across portions of the Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week, and interests
there should closely monitor its progress. In addition, this
disturbance has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall from
the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.”

end text.

The rub for how this may affect the Plains…especially the eastern Plains…is how it comes together and also when it starts coming northbound. IF it goes up through LA…tough to imagine western MO getting a lot from this…BUT IF it comes farther west…and affects more of eastern TX…then the chances of us getting something from it go up.

Overnight model runs are a bit more favorable for this solution…but again without a core to the storm for the models to latch on to…I don’t have a lot of faith in any solution at this point.

The worse case scenario for LA is something that gives the New Orleans area a lot of rain. They are very vulnerable right now because high waters from the draining Mississippi River are flowing southwards and emptying into the Gulf. The MS River is in moderate to major flooding right now…and this rainfall forecast isn’t what the folks in southern LA want to see right now.

So regardless whether this turns into Barry or whether it’s a tropical storm or even a hurricane…this is going to be a big rain-maker for the northern Gulf Coast area.

As far as we go from all this…

IF whatever comes northwards DOESN’T affect us…we may stay hot and dry for quite some time next week…think low to mid 90s day in and day out.

IF this thing DOES come closer to the State Line area then we get a heat and dry weather break on Tuesday and potentially Wednesday as well. It’s 6 days away so obviously you don’t want to get too caught into one way of thinking or the other. That would be a great rain though (potentially 1-3″+)…and really would help the farmers out a LOT.

Andy Zell from the Basehor, KS area has a great shelf cloud from the storms this morning that have been moving through the region.

Joe

 

 

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