Joe’s Weather World: The 5 day heat wave starts (WED-7/17)
Good morning…aside from potentially some scattered storms coming through parts of the area, mainly north of I-70 later this morning…the forecast is a hot and humid one over the next 5 days. The heat wave though won’t have true staying power though as a decent for late July cold front comes into the area on Sunday and sweeps the heat south and allows some relief to move into the area for next week.
The heat coming into the area isn’t unusual. We’re not coming into the hottest time of the year…we probably won’t hit 100° (officially at KCI) and the heat index values will be around 105° (give or take). So basically your typical KC heat wave. Again though it will break. For as much confidence as I had that the heat would build during the forecasts last week…I have as much confidence that the heat will break Sunday into Monday.
Today: Isolated storms are possible later this morning as some activity tracks out of KS…we’ll see how long they hold together this morning. Turning hot and humid later this afternoon with highs 90-95°. Heat index values will be in the 100-105° range. Winds will be increasing this afternoon as well. Clouds may take awhile to clear out today
Tonight: Fair and warm with lows 75-80°
Thursday-Saturday: Mostly sunny with highs 95-100°. Heat index values 100-110°
Sunday: Storm chances will be increasing…the timing of the cold front will determine the highs. Near 95° is likely with storms in the evening possible for some.
So in a twitter poll I did last night…I asked you what you wanted me to talk about more…did you mind the heat index numbers or the wind chill values…
As of this morning 54% voted in favor of the heat index.
Well we’ll be talking a lot about that aspect of the forecast…
The heat index is a way to figure the risk of heat exhaustion/stress that the body endures when humidity is factored in. Humidity is important because the lower the humidity the better the body can cool down when you sweat. For example…in the desert IF you get out of a pool…you feel cool because the water evaporates off you…
When the humidity is high that evaporation isn’t as prevalent…so the body stays warmer.
How do you find out the humidity? Go here for the latest information.
There is actually a better way to determine how the heat affects a person…it takes into account winds and sunshine (which the heat index scale does not)…it’s called the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature.
You have to click on KC, or whereever, to get the values…but more goes into this as it was created with additional factors…from the web page…
“The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation). This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas. If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor. Military agencies, OSHA and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.”
About the only hope today for rain comes from a weak disturbance coming through KS…I talked about this last night and mentioned the risk of some isolated activity till about lunch or so…we’ll see how long this stuff lasts…here is the radar from Pleasant Hill though.
The bust potential to the forecast is the clouds coming our way this morning and how long they linger into the afternoon.
From there though we’re off to the races from a temperature standpoint through Saturday.
The rain won’t be much IF you get anything today.
The next chance will come on Sunday into Sunday night. That will be connected with the cooler air that will flow into the region later Sunday into Monday.
The heat wave generator will be sliding towards the Rockies…and the 4 corners region. This means that we go back into NW or NNW flow aloft…allowing somewhat cooler air to slide through the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes…we get to partake in that cooler air next week
From a rain standpoint…well there should be at least something out there (later this morning and Sunday PM/night) but the amounts right now aren’t too overwhelming.
The ensembles give us about 1″ of rain over the next 15 days or so..the operational EURO gives us less than that. Not the greatest look. The issue with next week is that NW flow could bring some weak disturbances southwards…so hopefully we can get something from that the the models aren’t taking into account. We’ll see about that.
That’s it for today…stay cool and hope that maybe the clouds/showers trying to get here help us out this afternoon.
Our feature photo comes from Brittany Limback from the big storms last week out towards Alma, MO