Joe’s Weather World: Sometimes you have to go ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (THU-8/15)
I’m going to tell you a secret that weather folks don’t like to talk about…sometimes they think they know something is going to happen when in reality they have no idea.
Now that that’s out of the bag it goes without saying that I try like heck to get things right day in and day out. Most of us do on a daily basis but sometimes I think it’s OK to just say “hey…I’m not really sure what’s going to happen”. If nobody else will say this (because of pride or whatever) I sure will. On rare occasions the weather can get so complicated and so many things revolve around what happens over a 3-6 hour period that will affect what happens 2-3 days down the road.
Sometimes one of my favorite sayings is to remind people that what we do is try to predict things that don’t exist. That in itself is hard to do and we do it usually pretty well. Not perfect but pretty well most of the time. There are flame-outs for sure and over the next few days the forecast may well be very wrong at times.
Today is a case where I may be very wrong…or I may be very right, at least regarding what I said last night. Then this has ripple effects of what happens tonight…and tomorrow…and over the weekend. I’m glad I’m taking a 3 day weekend…I’ll try and get a blog update out though on Friday morning.
Today: Watching what’s happening in Nebraska this morning. Sunny skies this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. If the activity holds together up there long enough…we may have some rain locally later this afternoon…after 3PM or so. IF the activity falls appart we may warm up into the upper 80s…if we get rain it may only be in the 80-85° range. Radar is below.
Tonight: What happens later today will influence tonight. IF storms/rain cooled air are around and contaminate the atmosphere then not much may happen tonight at all…IF we do get into the upper 80s today then there could be storms out there tonight…later tonight into Friday AM. Lows in the 60s. LOW confidence forecast
Friday: Storms are possible early in the AM…then there may not be much around tomorrow. Highs in the 80s. LOW confidence forecast
Saturday and Sunday: Ditto…better chances overnight and early in the AM. Boundaries around the region will need to be watched for additional afternoon/evening storms IF we get unstable and IF there are other parameters coming together. LOW confidence forecast. IF there are storms that linger…temperatures will be cooler during the day.
Like I said…¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I hate that…I really do but sometimes around these parts I just don’t have a lot of confidence in one day to another…
The issue today is that we (for now) have a lot of dry air out there around our region…we also have a decent sized area of storms/rain moving through central Nebraska to start the day.
How long will that thing hold together?
The HRRR model this morning brings it through the area this afternoon…
I’m NOT confident in that outcome right now…it may stay more west of KC in the end…sure we may get the clouds in the area after lunch…and there may be some fading showers too…but the HRRR seems pretty gung ho this morning for a system coming into some pretty dry air. I’m also noticing that the bigger storms are getting more rooted on the western side of the complex which may end up dropping SSE into central/north central KS while the eastern side of the complex slowly fades away. Of note as well that whole mess isn’t exactly plunging our way…which means it will typically weaken as the day moves along and it’s still hundreds of miles away.
The RAP model (another short term model) seems to have this thing falling apart in NE KS as it approaches our area this afternoon…this sort of makes sense to me. This model then lays some sort of boundary down near the region…which may focus new storms overnight and again tomorrow and that sort of makes sense to me conceptually at least.
Other models do all sorts of things…the hi res NAM model gives us nothing till early Saturday morning…the lower res NAM gives parts of the KC metro over 5″ of rain…like I said sometimes ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So I’ll keep my thoughts going from last night…better chances overnight into tomorrow AM…then again maybe tomorrow night into Sunday AM.
It does look hotter next week though…strange how sometimes I have more confidence in what happens 4 days from now than I do 8 hours from now. So it goes.
Again be prepared for changing forecasts…the team will do it’s best to be consistent but this is going to be a taxing few days for forecast accuracy.
With ALL of that said…the potential for heavy rains is certainly there, especially starting tonight into Saturday. Don’t cancel your outdoor plans for any day over the weekend right now…confidence in the timing of the storms/rain is just not high enough. The risk of severe storms will also be there too…I’m not too thrilled about today’s set-up but there may be some wind/hail threats later tonight into Friday and again later Friday night into Saturday.
Again even that scenario locally is a bit iffy because IF we do end up with storms later today that would potentially wash out the air around us and prevent new storms overnight from forming…maybe.
Very frustrating at times doing this job…and today is one of the more frustrating days.
I need a tranquil feature photo…and this one from Steve Ferro fits the bill.