Joe’s Weather World: Heat returns but not for long…and yes more rain ahead (MON-8/19)

There are 34 days to go before fall starts in KC. This summer hasn’t been terrible for extended periods of heat. It’s been muggy for sure…and that was to be expected after all the spring rains…and the heat was pretty nasty for a few days here and there…but we’ve yet to hit 100° and odds are we won’t for the rest of the summer. The heat index on the other hand has been above 100° more than a few times and the next couple of days will probably see that occur.

Every time we try and stay hot though something happens…and it’s usually a well timed cold front that comes through and that will be the case this week as well. With that front will come a humidity break and cooler weather…this is timed for Wednesday onwards as highs will drop into the 70s and 80s again.

There will be more rain will all this as well.



  • Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy warmer and more humid with highs near 90° with a heat index approaching 100°

Tonight: Fair skies and muggy with lows 70-75°

Tuesday: There may be some storms sliding from the north into the area, especially on the MO side of things. These storms are possible after daybreak through lunch or so. The rain/clouds will determine whether we get to the 90s or not. Without the storms/clouds…90-95°…with them…not as hot. It will be very muggy without them though…and IF we miss out on the storms/clouds the heat index may be about 105° in the afternoon.

Wednesday: Morning storms increasingly likely…cooler and not as humid with highs in the 80s



  • Discussion:

Let’s start with the rain…it was a very wet weekend for some areas out there, especially on the KS side. Severe storms also did some wind damage to some trees and power lines…the 1st map of the morning shows the rain anomalies over the the past couple of weeks..it’s been very wet on the KS side as well as for parts of northern MO.

So far this month KCI has had just shy of 3″ of rain…that’s above average thus far…it wasn’t all that long ago where we were actually a bit below average for meteorological summer (6/1-8/30). Not anymore.

If the year stopped today we’d be the 62nd wettest year in KC weather history.

Through the 18th though…this is the 4th wettest year on record…

This morning’s weather map has a weak boundary still sort of hanging around the region…we appear to be capped so odds favor no storms today…

The south winds will return tonight…and the dew points which are in the 70s this morning will increase even more…we may experience another run of 75-80° dew points tomorrow…depending on what happens with a thunderstorm complex tomorrow morning.

Early Tuesday a complex of storms should form near the I-80 corridor. These will pivot east then southeast and affect parts of northern MO and northeast MO. The issue will be will that complex through some sort of disruptive outflow our way in the morning…or will clouds be a factor in filtering out the sunshine during the day tomorrow. Both would impact the temperatures and the future heat index.

Some data points to this happening…other data does not and even IF we are impacted by whatever happens in the AM tomorrow we could still make a late day recovery to some very uncomfortable conditions.

Again this is just a 2 day thing…as more comfortable air will be sent our way Wednesday morning…shoving the heat to the south again for the rest of the week it appears.

As this happens additional rain chances will be developing on Wednesday and perhaps again on Thursday. Depending on those chances and the timing of the rains…we may have some pretty cool weather squeezed in there…clouds will also be a factor as well for the middle of the week.

We again may be vulnerable to storms over the weekend (especially the overnight type storms).

Our feature photo today comes from Sandra Kay out in Leeton, MO

Joe

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