Joe’s Weather World: These t/storm complexes are driving me nuts (WED-8/21)

More rain out there again today…and probably tomorrow too. Heavy rains and flooding have been reported up across northern MO and those storms have sent another outflow into the KC area…helping to develop more storms locally. We’ve been in a repetitive pattern of this happening lately and the predictability from one day to another has been “challenging” to say the least. Not so much whether we’ll get the rain…but the timing has been a mess with this whole thing(s).

Even today there are now questions about how long the rain stays and now what temperatures will be…rain cooled air is flowing south now…will this keep our temperatures from reaching the mid 80s? Possibly yes.



  • Forecast:

Today: Occasional showers/storms linger through the early afternoon at least…then some breaks…then more rain is possible later today into tonight. Highs today may be all over the place…cooler north and warmer south. Let’s go with 80-85° for the KC area with 70s in northern MO and near 90° farther south. Locally heavy rains are possible

Tonight: More storms/rain possible. Lows in the 60s

Tomorrow: Rain possible during the 1st part of the day then drier in the afternoon with highs in the 70s

Friday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the 70s



  • Discussion:

Just a mess…had rain in the forecast for today and mentioned some heavy rains were possible up north which is happening…but my timing is off and this whole weather pattern is driving me a bit crazy.

Here is a look at radar…

As I type this…there is an outflow boundary sagging southwards in the far southern part of the viewing area…storms are developing north of that boundary. There’s been some heavy rains too across northern MO.

It’s sort of funny that it was only a few weeks ago that northern MO couldn’t buy a drop of rain…but they’ve been inundated with rain/storms over the past couple of weeks.

The boundary is nearby and there is a low level jet stream blowing across that boundary helping to create lift.

This stuff sort of has a mind of it’s own but some areas across northern MO have had almost 6-8″ of rain over the past couple of days

I was thinking yesterday that I had more confidence in the forecast for the end of the month (cooler) than I did for today.

So this wet weather will be off and on in nature through tomorrow AM at least…then we should see lessor rains later tomorrow and Friday but still some showers might be possible especially farther south of KC.

The weekend overall looks OK…not overly hot…with us sort of in this weird position of being close to the hotter weather again but not quite in “it”. So again we may see a somewhat favorable pattern for overnight complexes of storms/rain in the region somewhere.

Late August is typically a time we see a reduced chance of these complexes moving through the region…

Speaking of which…I posted this on my FB page yesterday and it still looks to have a lot of merit today.

I’m becoming more confident in this outcome towards the last few days on the month into Labor Day weekend…here is a look at potential temperature ranges towards the end of the month using the ensemble model data of both the EURO model and the GFS model.

Notice what happens after the middle of next week…a nice shot of 70s for highs and 50s for lows…seems like a better than reasonable chance that this happens at this point…

So far this month temperatures are running about 1/2 of a degree above average.

Our feature photo comes from Krystin Romanchuk‎ out in Lone Jack this morning…nice sunrise

Joe

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