Joe’s Weather World: Enjoy it now…because…yup more rain + Dorian info (WED-8/28)

As we finish off the month of August…I did some quick research for you yesterday that I used for my “What Your Weather app Can’t Tell You segment…so far this summer (and we consider summer from 6/1-8/31) we’re ranking 45th coolest or so (through yesterday) in average temperatures…that would be in the upper half of coolest summers. What is somewhat more fascinating to me though is that the summers of 2004, ’09, ’14, ’17, ’13, ’08, ’15 were cooler that this summer…and that’s just this century!

So on that note today will be another below average day…we started at a crisp 56° and will finish in the lower 80s. Tomorrow is hotter and muggier then the rains may come again for a couple of days.

Dorian will also likely be a news headline this coming weekend…as it may be a formidable hurricane when it approaches Florida later in the weekend.



  • Forecast:

Today: Sunny and delightful with highs in the lower 80s

Tonight: Clear and not as cool with lows in the mid 60s

Thursday: Hot and muggy with highs in the upper 80s

Friday: Rain at times and cooler with highs in the 70s

This weekend: Iffy Saturday but hopefully somewhat drier Sunday and better Monday: 70s Saturday and near 80° Sunday and 80s Monday



  • Discussion:

I think by most accounts, aside from the all the rain…and the muggy factor of the summer…this has been a tolerable summer around these parts.

I briefly mentioned that I remember 7 years ago this week…when we were in the throes of one nasty drought…remember this?

Exceptional drought (the highest level of “drought-ness”) covered the entire KC area…then a small miracle happened…

The remnants of Hurricane Isaac…

It was born in the Atlantic Ocean and made US landfall in SE Louisiana…but the track and the way the system held together came up through SW MO before the remnants curled away towards St Louis.

Our devastating drought was broken by the remains of the storm. 4-8″ of mostly slow and soaking rains came down in the KC region.

This all happened on on the last day of August into the 1st day of September

This year there is no drought around the area…not even really close although there are some areas in SW KS starting to dry out and certainly southern OK and TX are having issues in spots.

A couple of days ago Midland, TX set an all-time heat record for August at 113°…but today there is a lot of rain in that part of the country.

Meanwhile back home…

Gorgeous.

Tomorrow will be a hotter and more summerish day. Near 90° with dew points that will make you sweat!

A cold front will be heading towards the area Friday…how far into the region it gets will determine the rain situation. Fronts in the area with a lot of moisture this summer…have meant rain and storms (sometimes a lot). Dew points tomorrow are heading back into the 70s and the atmospheric moisture in general is going to really go up as well…that means the front coming towards the area will not have too much of an issue, when it does create rain, to create some areas of heavy rains.

The front though will slow down…and maybe hang up somewhere near or north of here. IF you want dry weather for the whole weekend…you probably want more rain Friday…so that the front pushes well south of here…but I’m more worried that while we’ll have off and on rain on Friday…that it won’t be organized enough or create enough of a cool push to the front…and as a result the front slows to a crawl somewhere around here…could be a bit south…on top of us…or a bit north…then it just sort of wavers around.

NOT a good recipe for prolonged dry weather.

I think the rain chances on Friday and Saturday are pretty good…and assuming that the front doesn’t get a big push on Friday…Saturday may not be pleasant in the area with more steadier rains…so start thinking of plan B’s now…because the trend is NOT our friend at this point.

Assuming we get the rains on those two days…we should be then in the process of clearing out, or at least drying out, on Sunday into Monday.

Rainfall amounts could be in the 1-4″ range for the two days combined…so there’s that as well.

So this time it won’t be the remnants of a hurricane to give us a ton of rain…but of a slow moving/wavering front that will sort of hang around the region.

Now Dorien…the little storm that is trying hard to be something else. It’s had a rough journey fighting dry air surrounding the storm…wind shear stripping the storm of strong storms around the center…and a center that has reformed farther north than previous (yesterday). But here we are…

It actually looks a bit healthier today…which may not be good news for those in the path…plus as soon as it’s done with Puerto Rico, perhaps as a minimal hurricane, and assuming the mountains don’t kill the storm…and it comes back out into the warm waters…conditions will be more favorable for development.

Of note you can also see Erin off the NC coastline too.

Back to Dorien and radar from the Puerto Rico area…

 

There may be an eye trying to form. It may not hit Puerto Rico that badly…at least from a wind standpoint. Rain though will be an issue.

Should be noted that there is a lot of warm water down there ready to help fuel the fire as well…warmer than average too.

So folks from central FL northwards are watching this carefully.

Interestingly the EURO takes it across central FL then perhaps with another impact in the the Panhandle area…

My feeling is that that will be a lot of curve balls thrown towards forecasters regarding Dorian over the next few days.

OK that’s it for today…see you tonight on the news!

Our feature photo comes from @twistedskieswx

Joe

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