Joe’s Weather World: Summer keeps chugging away (TUE-9/10)

We almost tied a record WARM this low (for today’s date) this morning. So far the low for the day is 74°…the warmest low on record (going back to the 1880s) is 75° set back o 9/10 in 1910. It’s balmy out there for sure this morning…and pretty cloudy as well.

Yesterday while KCI didn’t get to 90°…a lot of other places did including 95° in Downtown KC! That’s pretty impressive. Lawrence, which seems to be running hot lately…got to 97°.

Today there will be a lot of clouds for the 1st 1/2 to 2/3rds of the day…we won’t get to 90° I don’t think officially….some though probably will where the sun makes more of an appearance this afternoon. Humidity levels will continue to be high as well (the dew points will be in the 70s) so it will still feel muggy through the day.

The next decent cold front comes through later Thursday with storms/rain then cooler and drier air for about 2 days before we heat up again…and the middle of the month will be above average.



  • Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and muggy with highs in the mid>upper 80s

Tonight: Fair skies and muggy with lows 70-75°

Wednesday: Hot and breezy with highs in the 90° range

Thursday: Muggy with variable clouds. The storm risks increase in the later PM hours…maybe some scattered severe storms in the region as well. Highs 85-90° then cooling off overnight into Friday morning.



  • Discussion:

Summer keeps chugging along. We’re about 2° above average so far this month…and it feels like more really. The average high and low for today is 81/60…needless to say when you start the day with a low of 74° it’s going to be an above average day regardless.

The clouds in place today…at least through the lunch hour will factor into the temperatures this afternoon. Yesterday KCI hit 89°. I don’t think we’ll get there today.

It’s a train of moisture streaming into the southern Plains…I was debating myself yesterday in terms of how hot to go for today…I was fighting 85-88° in my head all afternoon…I went towards the high side in my forecast…hope that pans out. I noticed yesterday when the clouds came in in the afternoon that KCI dropped to 86…then went to 89° again after the clouds thinned…we won’t have as much wind today compared to the 30-35 MPH gusts yesterday…so we’ll see how how we get in the end. 88° might have been too aggressive.

Tomorrow should be without all the clouds of today…so it should be hotter.

That front is still on tap sometime later Thursday…and the mentioned likelihood for rain/storms is certainly there…what cooling we get behind the front will last for about 36>48 hours or so…then we heat right back up again towards the end of the weekend and next early next week as well…more runs towards 90° are likely in that time frame.

The overall pattern though remains warm…there will be a few interludes of cooler air though but overall for the next 2+ weeks we’re mild to warm in the area by mid>late September standards. Here is the 8-14 day forecast…

I don’t see any reason to argue much with this…it gets us through the 23rd.

Here is a sampling of the EUEO ensemble forecasts through the 23rd…

Note the return to somewhat seasonable levels towards the last week or so of the month.

One thing I’ll be watching in the data today is the potential for some sort of weak disturbance to come up from the WSW on Saturday. This will be coincided with the cooler and drier air retreating and moving away…which means we’re going to be seeing moisture returning with a return of the near 70° dew points as the possible disturbances come into that moisture…so I’m wondering if we have some storms in the area on Saturday. Again that may come in the afternoon forecast update.

Also of note is some of the model data that I talked about last night during the 10PM show…

Twice each week the EURO comes out with 46 day forecasts…it’s entertaining but I don’t exactly put a lot of credence in the data most of the time…maybe for some broad ideas but certainly not for specific daily thoughts days and weeks down the road.

So with that backdrop…how many remember what happened last 10/14 in 2018.? We had .2″ of snow! It was our earliest accumulating snow in KC weather history. Well guess what. The EURO data last night…of which it’s a compilation of about 50 different model runs then averaged out to an “ensemble” mean…came out with this…

That’s right…4 out of the 50 or so “members” actually have snow here well before Halloween.

There you go…enjoy the heat and humidity because it will change (as we all know)

Our feature photo comes from Sindee Primm up in Brookfield, MO.

Joe

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